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MLB Matchup Intelligence

PHI vs
BOS

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox

May 12, 2026 ยท 6:45 PM ET ยท Fenway Park
PHI 88-74  ยท  BOS 87-75

๐Ÿ Final: PHI 2, BOS 1 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Philadelphia Phillies
Confidence 72%
Projected Score PHI 3 ยท BOS 1
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

BOS Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Key injuries PHI (Luis Arraez) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI SP quality edge (FIP 3.37 vs 4.17, PF 1.07) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS PHI SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 11.7) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS K edge vs PHI lineup (10.1 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI K edge vs BOS lineup (10.7 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PHI Recent run diff (+1.6 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

PHI โ€” Away RHP
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler
ERA3.00
WHIP1.05
FIP3.27
K/910.7
K/BB8.1
Road ERA: 3.10
vs
BOS โ€” Home LHP
Jovani Moran
Jovani Moran
ERA3.15
WHIP1.14
FIP4.17
K/910.1
K/BB5.5

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

PHI โ€” Away
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Adolis Garcia RF
  5. 5 Brandon Marsh LF
  6. 6 J.T. Realmuto C
  7. 7 Bryson Stott 2B
  8. 8 Alec Bohm 3B
  9. 9 Justin Crawford CF
BOS โ€” Home
  1. 1 Jarren Duran LF
  2. 2 Mickey Gasper 1B
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Masataka Yoshida DH
  5. 5 Trevor Story SS
  6. 6 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  7. 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
  8. 8 Carlos Narvaez C
  9. 9 Caleb Durbin 3B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

PHI Away BOS Home
Team OPS 0.713 0.678
Bullpen FIP 4.07 3.55
Run Diff / 10G +1.3 -0.3
Days Rest 1 1
Streak 1 -3

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
PHI -1.5 (+1280)
BOS +1.5 (-10000)
Total (O/U)
Over 3.5 (+306)
Under 3.5 (-448)
Moneyline
PHI -680
BOS +418

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

PHI โ€” Away
Zack Wheeler Zack Wheeler SP
Outs
17.5
52 ยท UNDER
BOS โ€” Home

No data yet.

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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