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MLB Matchup Intelligence

PIT vs
ARI

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks

May 7, 2026 ยท 3:40 PM ET ยท Chase Field
PIT 82-80  ยท  ARI 86-76

๐Ÿ Final: PIT 4, ARI 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Pittsburgh Pirates
Confidence 72%
Projected Score PIT 5 ยท ARI 2
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

ARI Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Key injuries ARI (Corbin Burnes, Gabriel Moreno) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Key injuries PIT (Oneil Cruz) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT SP quality edge (FIP 3.30 vs 4.28) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Defensive edge (dWAR 2.4) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Recent run diff (+0.9 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI SP home venue edge (ERA 5.93 H vs 6.82 A) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

PIT โ€” Away RHP
Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
ERA5.29
WHIP1.38
FIP4.34
K/97.0
K/BB3.7
Road ERA: 5.17
vs
ARI โ€” Home RHP
Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen
ERA6.07
WHIP1.55
FIP5.23
K/95.5
K/BB2.5
Home ERA: 5.93

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

PIT โ€” Away
  1. 1 Oneil Cruz DH
  2. 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
  3. 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
  4. 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
  5. 5 Spencer Horwitz 1B
  6. 6 Konnor Griffin SS
  7. 7 Jared Triolo 3B
  8. 8 Billy Cook CF
  9. 8 Jake Mangum CF
  10. 9 Joey Bart C
ARI โ€” Home
  1. 1 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  2. 2 Ketel Marte 2B
  3. 3 Corbin Carroll RF
  4. 4 Adrian Del Castillo DH
  5. 5 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
  6. 6 Jose Fernandez 3B
  7. 7 Jorge Barrosa LF
  8. 8 James McCann C
  9. 9 Alek Thomas CF

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

PIT Away ARI Home
Team OPS 0.710 0.678
Bullpen FIP 3.99 3.95
Run Diff / 10G -0.6 -1.5
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
PIT -1.5 (-1220)
ARI +1.5 (+610)
Total (O/U)
Over 6.5 (+585)
Under 6.5 (-1120)
Moneyline
PIT -10000
ARI +1380

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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