โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

STL vs
ARI

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks

July 17, 2026 ยท 9:40 PM ET ยท Chase Field (NH)
STL 77-85  ยท  ARI 86-76

๐Ÿ Final: STL 5, ARI 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† St. Louis Cardinals
Confidence 62%
Projected Score STL 6 ยท ARI 4
Blowout Probability 8%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

ARI Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Key injuries ARI (Corbin Burnes, Gabriel Moreno) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL SP quality edge (FIP 4.05 vs 5.97) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI STL SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Defensive edge (dWAR 4.2) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Recent run diff (+1.9 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL ARI SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Line move (37pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

STL โ€” Away RHP
Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy
ERA3.95
WHIP1.28
FIP4.21
K/96.2
K/BB3.6
Road ERA: 4.12
vs
ARI โ€” Home RHP
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
ERA4.94
WHIP1.46
FIP5.25
K/96.3
K/BB2.4
Home ERA: 6.21

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

STL โ€” Away
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Ivan Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Lars Nootbaar LF
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church CF
  8. 8 Jose Fermin 3B
  9. 9 Jimmy Crooks C
ARI โ€” Home
  1. 1 Ketel Marte 2B
  2. 2 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  3. 3 Corbin Carroll RF
  4. 4 Gabriel Moreno C
  5. 5 Max Kepler LF
  6. 6 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. DH
  7. 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
  8. 8 Ildemaro Vargas 1B
  9. 9 Tim Tawa CF

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

STL Away ARI Home
Team OPS 0.700 0.716
Bullpen FIP 3.97 3.95
Run Diff / 10G -0.6 +1.3
Days Rest 4 4
Streak -4 -2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
STL -1.5 (+1440)
ARI +1.5 (-10000)
Total (O/U)
Over 9.5 (+414)
Under 9.5 (-670)
Moneyline
STL -1280
ARI +630

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

STL โ€” Away
Alec Burleson Alec Burleson 1B
Hits
1.5
77 ยท UNDER
Ivan Herrera Ivan Herrera DH
Hits
1.5
73 ยท UNDER
Jose Fermin Jose Fermin 3B
Hits
1.5
68 ยท UNDER
Lars Nootbaar Lars Nootbaar LF
Hits
1.5
66 ยท UNDER
ARI โ€” Home
Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 3B
Hits
1.5
79 ยท UNDER
Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo SS
Hits
1.5
76 ยท UNDER
Corbin Carroll Corbin Carroll RF
Hits
1.5
74 ยท UNDER
Tim Tawa Tim Tawa CF
Hits
1.5
59 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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