โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

STL vs
SD

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres

May 9, 2026 ยท 7:15 PM ET ยท Petco Park
STL 77-85  ยท  SD 91-71

๐Ÿ Final: STL 2, SD 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† San Diego Padres
Confidence 72%
Projected Score SD 5 ยท STL 2
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SD Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Key injuries SD (Casey Mize) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL SP quality edge (FIP 3.71 vs 4.17, PF 0.91) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Recent run diff (+3.3 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL SP road mastery (ERA 3.87 R vs 5.12 H) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

STL โ€” Away RHP
Dustin May
Dustin May
ERA4.70
WHIP1.32
FIP3.40
K/98.9
K/BB5.8
Road ERA: 3.87
vs
SD โ€” Home RHP
Randy Vasquez
Randy Vasquez
ERA3.90
WHIP1.26
FIP4.13
K/95.6
K/BB3.2
Home ERA: 3.95

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

STL โ€” Away
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Ivan Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church CF
  8. 8 Thomas Saggese LF
  9. 9 Pedro Pages C
SD โ€” Home
  1. 1 Jackson Merrill CF
  2. 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
  3. 3 Manny Machado 3B
  4. 4 Gavin Sheets DH
  5. 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
  6. 6 Ramon Laureano LF
  7. 7 Ty France 1B
  8. 8 Sung-Mun Song 2B
  9. 9 Freddy Fermin C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

STL Away SD Home
Team OPS 0.682 0.702
Bullpen FIP 3.97 3.44
Run Diff / 10G +1.9 -1.4
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -4 4

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
STL +1.5 (+282)
SD -1.5 (-406)
Total (O/U)
Over 6.5 (+273)
Under 6.5 (-390)
Moneyline
STL +800
SD -2000

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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