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MLB Matchup Intelligence

TOR vs
SD

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres

July 11, 2026 ยท 8:40 PM ET ยท Petco Park
TOR 79-83  ยท  SD 91-71

๐Ÿ Final: TOR 7, SD 8 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† San Diego Padres
Confidence 62%
Projected Score SD 9 ยท TOR 7
Blowout Probability 8%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SD Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Key injuries SD (Casey Mize) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Key injuries TOR (Dylan Cease) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR SP quality edge (FIP 4.58 vs 5.05, PF 0.91) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Defensive edge (dWAR 3.1) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Recent run diff (+2.9 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Line move (36pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

TOR โ€” Away RHP
Trey Yesavage
Trey Yesavage
ERA3.69
WHIP1.14
FIP4.16
K/99.0
K/BB4.6
Road ERA: 3.27
vs
SD โ€” Home RHP
Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler
ERA4.63
WHIP1.35
FIP4.37
K/97.7
K/BB4.3
Home ERA: 4.38

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

TOR โ€” Away
  1. 1 Ernie Clement 2B
  2. 2 Nathan Lukes RF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 George Springer DH
  5. 5 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  6. 6 Daulton Varsho CF
  7. 7 Alejandro Kirk C
  8. 8 Andres Gimenez SS
  9. 9 Jonatan Clase LF
SD โ€” Home
  1. 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
  2. 2 Jackson Merrill CF
  3. 3 Xander Bogaerts SS
  4. 4 Manny Machado DH
  5. 5 Gavin Sheets LF
  6. 6 Ty France 1B
  7. 7 Jake Cronenworth 2B
  8. 8 Luis Campusano C
  9. 9 Sung-Mun Song 3B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

TOR Away SD Home
Team OPS 0.699 0.721
Bullpen FIP 4.49 3.44
Run Diff / 10G +0.0 -2.9
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 4

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
TOR -1.5 (+1100)
SD +1.5 (-5100)
Total (O/U)
Over 15.5 (+472)
Under 15.5 (-810)
Moneyline
TOR +780
SD -1940

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

TOR โ€” Away
Andres Gimenez Andres Gimenez SS
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
79 ยท UNDER
Kazuma Okamoto Kazuma Okamoto 3B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
78 ยท OVER
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
76 ยท OVER
Alejandro Kirk Alejandro Kirk C
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
76 ยท OVER
SD โ€” Home
Jackson Merrill Jackson Merrill CF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
77 ยท OVER
Manny Machado Manny Machado DH
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
74 ยท OVER
Jake Cronenworth Jake Cronenworth 2B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
72 ยท OVER
Ty France Ty France 1B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
72 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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