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MLB Matchup Intelligence

TOR vs
TB

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 5, 2026 ยท 6:40 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
TOR 79-83  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: TOR 3, TB 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 72%
Projected Score TB 5 ยท TOR 3
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries TOR (Dylan Cease) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 3.04 vs 3.52, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR TB SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB TOR SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 2.4) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+1.4 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

TOR โ€” Away RHP
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman
ERA4.51
WHIP1.27
FIP3.73
K/99.3
K/BB7.0
Road ERA: 5.68
vs
TB โ€” Home RHP
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.67
WHIP0.91
FIP2.69
K/99.1
K/BB7.4
Home ERA: 2.89

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

TOR โ€” Away
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Yohendrick Pinango LF
  3. 3 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  4. 4 Jesus Sanchez RF
  5. 5 Lenyn Sosa 1B
  6. 6 Daulton Varsho CF
  7. 7 Ernie Clement 2B
  8. 8 Andres Gimenez SS
  9. 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Diaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 6 Ben Williamson SS
  7. 7 Cedric Mullins CF
  8. 8 Hunter Feduccia C
  9. 9 Richie Palacios 2B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

TOR Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.668 0.711
Bullpen FIP 4.49 4.55
Run Diff / 10G +0.9 +2.3
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
TOR -1.5 (+950)
TB +1.5 (-3200)
Total (O/U)
Over 7.5 (+1000)
Under 7.5 (-3700)
Moneyline
TOR +1620
TB -10000

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

TOR โ€” Away
Kevin Gausman Kevin Gausman SP
Pitcher Ks
5.5
52 ยท OVER
TB โ€” Home
Drew Rasmussen Drew Rasmussen SP
Pitcher Ks
4.5
59 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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