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MLB Final Intelligence

BAL 79-82
7 – 5
FINAL
NYM 74-88

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets β€” Recap

September 15, 2026  Β· Citi Field  Β· View Preview

πŸ“°Game Recap

The Baltimore Orioles, defying pregame expectations, mounted a persistent effort against the New York Mets, breaking a late tie with a three-run 11th inning to secure a hard-fought victory. New York initially seized the lead in the bottom of the first when Young delivered a sacrifice fly, scoring Soto. Baltimore quickly responded in the second inning with back-to-back solo home runs from Encarnacion-Strand and Jackson, momentarily taking a 2-1 advantage. The Mets promptly knotted the score in the bottom of the second on a Soto single before Benge's solo blast in the third put New York back ahead, 3-2. The one-run lead held until the ninth, when Alonso’s leadoff homer for the Orioles sent the game into extra innings. Baltimore again took the lead in the tenth after Encarnacion-Strand scored on a wild pitch, but the Mets answered once more on Semien's RBI double, forcing an 11th frame. The decisive blow came in the 11th inning when Coby Mayo launched a three-run homer to left, scoring Taveras and Beavers and giving the Orioles a 7-4 lead. This marked the largest scoring outburst for either team in the seesaw contest. While Sean Manaea provided a strong effort for the Mets, surrendering just two earned runs and striking out six over 5.1 innings, the bullpen ultimately couldn't preserve the advantage, especially after the game went into extra innings. New York attempted a final rally in the bottom half of the 11th with Bichette's RBI single, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Orioles' late surge. Baltimore's relentless offense and ability to respond to every Mets rally proved to be the difference, enabling them to secure an unexpected victory after being favored to lose by both the pregame market and SportsFBI's analytics. The Orioles improved to 74-78, while the Mets dropped to 69-82.

#MLB #Orioles #Mets #CobyMayo #ExtraInnings

How the Prediction Fared

⚑ Upset

Pregame, the market favored the New York Mets (-125, 53% implied) over the Baltimore Orioles. Final: the Baltimore Orioles won 7–5, pulling off the upset.

⚑ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model favored the New York Mets (64% confidence). Final: the Baltimore Orioles won 7–5, missing the call.

Player of the Game

Coby Mayo
At the Plate
5 AB, 2 H, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Sean Manaea
On the Mound
5.1 IP, 6 K, 2 ER

Linescore

1234567891011 RHE
BAL 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 7 81
NYM 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 120

Turning Point

The game turned in the 11th inning, when the Baltimore Orioles scored 3 runs.

Pitching

Pitcher Team IP H R ER BB K ERA
Sean Manaea 5.1 4 2 2 0 6 4.74
Shane Baz 4.0 7 3 3 2 2 4.11
Luis De Leon 2.0 0 0 0 0 1 2.45
Nate Lavender 1.2 0 0 0 0 4 1.59
Alex Hoppe W 1.0 1 1 0 1 1 4.43
Andrew Kittredge S 1.0 1 1 0 0 0 3.66
Anthony Nunez 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 3.99
Grant Wolfram 1.0 1 0 0 1 2 4.56
Austin Warren 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 4.37
Daniel Duarte 1.0 1 1 0 0 2 2.12
Jonathan Pintaro L 1.0 2 3 2 1 2 4.50
Kodai Senga 1.0 1 1 1 0 2 7.05
Rico Garcia 0.2 1 0 0 1 0 2.94
Josh Walker 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 1.67

Batting

Batter Team AB H HR RBI R BB K
Bo Bichette 6 3 0 1 0 0 0
Coby Mayo 5 2 1 3 1 0 1
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 5 2 1 1 2 0 1
Juan Soto 5 2 0 1 1 1 1
A.J. Ewing 4 2 0 0 1 1 1
Jeremiah Jackson 4 1 1 1 1 0 2
Pete Alonso 5 1 1 1 1 0 2
Carson Benge 5 1 1 1 2 1 2
Jared Young 4 1 0 1 0 0 0
Marcus Semien 4 1 0 1 0 1 0
Gunnar Henderson 5 1 0 0 0 0 4
Yohel Pozo 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
Brett Baty 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
Francisco Lindor 5 1 0 0 0 1 0

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