MLB Final Intelligence
Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals — Recap
August 25, 2026 · Busch Stadium · View Preview
Game Recap
The Baltimore Orioles unleashed a formidable offensive display and received a strong pitching performance to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals, defying pregame expectations. Baltimore’s commanding victory came against a Cardinals team that was favored by both the betting market and SportsFBI’s analytical model, which had highlighted St. Louis’s starting pitching advantage. This outcome marked a significant upset, with the Orioles’ lineup proving far too potent for the favored hosts.
Baltimore wasted little time establishing control, with Pete Alonso launching a three-run home run to left center in the third inning, bringing Taveras and Holliday home. Encarnacion-Strand immediately followed with a solo shot, extending the lead to four. St. Louis managed to get one run back in the bottom half of the inning when Church homered to right center, but this would prove to be their only offense of the entire contest.
The game decisively swung in the fifth inning, where the Orioles mounted an eight-run rally that broke the game open. Mayo's single scored Holliday to start the prolonged scoring sequence, followed by Encarnacion-Strand's single that brought in Alonso and Henderson. Beavers drew a bases-loaded walk to plate Mayo, and Taveras singled home two more runs. Holliday then added another RBI single, and Alonso capped the massive inning with an RBI double, his fourth hit of the contest, pushing Baltimore's lead to 12-1. On the mound, Chris Bassitt delivered a stellar outing for Baltimore, allowing just one earned run over 6.2 innings while striking out five, neutralizing any threat from the Cardinals’ offense.
Baltimore's relentless offensive onslaught, combined with Bassitt's stifling performance, proved to be an insurmountable combination for St. Louis. The Orioles demonstrated an unexpected power surge to control the game from the early innings and never looked back. They now stand at 64-68, while the Cardinals fell to 66-67.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the St. Louis Cardinals (-126, 53% implied) over the Baltimore Orioles. Final: the Baltimore Orioles won 13–1, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the St. Louis Cardinals (61% confidence). Final: the Baltimore Orioles won 13–1, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 5th inning, when the Baltimore Orioles scored 8 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt W |
|
6.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4.74 |
| Matthew Liberatore L |
|
4.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 5.44 |
| Anthony Nunez |
|
2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4.31 |
| Ryan Fernandez |
|
2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4.15 |
| Caleb Ferguson |
|
1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4.55 |
| Pedro Pages |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 |
| Yennier Cano |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.21 |
| Peter Strzelecki |
|
0.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5.79 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso |
|
4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Holliday |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Church |
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Beavers |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Leody Taveras |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Coby Mayo |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlos Narvaez |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Franklin |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Alec Burleson |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blaze Jordan |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Herrera |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| JJ Wetherholt |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Baez |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
More MLB Results — Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Sharper Picks Start Here
Live odds, Key Suspects, player props, DFS rankings, and real-time game tracking — all in one workspace built for serious bettors and DFS players.