MLB Final Intelligence
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays β Recap
August 12, 2026 Β· Rogers Centre Β· View Preview
Game Recap
Defying pregame expectations that heavily favored their opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays secured an upset victory over the Boston Red Sox, breaking open a tight contest with a five-run eighth inning that proved too much for Boston to overcome despite a late rally. SportsFBI's model also confidently predicted a Red Sox win, making Toronto's late surge a significant upset.
The Blue Jays initially took the lead in the second inning when Clement singled to center field, bringing Okamoto home. Boston responded in the fifth as Willson Contreras blasted a 408-foot solo home run to left center, knotting the score at one run apiece. That deadlock persisted, with strong pitching keeping the game tight into the late innings.
Toronto's decisive five-run rally in the bottom of the eighth inning truly swung the game. Okamoto began the outburst with a single to left, scoring Guerrero Jr. Clement then drew a walk, plating Valenzuela and extending the lead. Springer followed with a sacrifice fly to center, bringing Okamoto home, before Straw delivered the big blow, a double to left that scored both Clement and GimΓ©nez, pushing the lead to five runs. This offensive explosion overcame a strong start from Jose Soriano, who kept Boston's bats largely quiet through six innings, surrendering just one earned run.
Despite Boston's best efforts to stage a comeback in the ninth, plating three runs through Durbin's single, Duran's double, and Monasterio's sacrifice fly, the deficit created by Toronto's eighth-inning surge was insurmountable. The Blue Jays' timely hitting in the late innings, combined with their starter's solid outing, ultimately sealed the victory. Boston now stands at 64-56, while Toronto improved to 59-63.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Boston Red Sox (-131, 54% implied) over the Toronto Blue Jays. Final: the Toronto Blue Jays won 6β4, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Boston Red Sox (72% confidence). Final: the Toronto Blue Jays won 6β4, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 8th inning, when the Toronto Blue Jays scored 5 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano |
|
6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3.16 |
| Ranger Suarez |
|
5.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3.25 |
| Alec Gamboa |
|
1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.93 |
| Erik Miller |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.43 |
| Justin Slaten |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4.60 |
| Mason Fluharty |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.94 |
| Tyler Rogers W |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.64 |
| Louis Varland S |
|
0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.30 |
| Matt Waldron |
|
0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7.46 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Durbin |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kazuma Okamoto |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Charles McAdoo |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Willson Contreras |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ernie Clement |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Andruw Monasterio |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jarren Duran |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Sogard |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wilyer Abreu |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alejandro Kirk |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andres Gimenez |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brett Bateman |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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