MLB Final Intelligence
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs β Recap
August 28, 2026 Β· Wrigley Field Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Cincinnati Reds, a significant underdog in Wednesday's contest, staged a dramatic comeback against the Chicago Cubs, overcoming an early deficit with a decisive five-run inning before holding off a late rally. The market had heavily favored the Cubs, and SportsFBI's model also leaned heavily on Chicago, making the Reds' road victory a notable upset.
Chicago jumped out to an early advantage at home, with Bregman doubling in the first inning to score Suzuki. Busch extended the lead to three runs in the third with a two-run homer to right field. Cincinnati began chipping away in the fourth, as RodrΓguez singled home Bleday, and Stewart followed with a solo shot in the fifth. Trevino then opened the sixth inning with a game-tying solo home run to center.
The sixth inning proved to be the pivotal frame for the Reds, who erupted for five runs to seize control. After Trevino's blast knotted the score, Stewart followed up his earlier homer with an infield single that scored RodrΓguez, giving Cincinnati its first lead. Tyler Stephenson then broke the game open, smashing a three-run homer to center, driving in De La Cruz and Stewart, and extending the Reds' advantage to 7-3. Cincinnati added two more runs in the seventh before a late Cubs charge saw Ramirez hit a three-run blast in the eighth and Suzuki add an RBI double, cutting the deficit to one run before Friedl's ninth-inning solo shot provided crucial insurance.
Cincinnati's middle-inning offensive surge, capped by Stephenson's crucial three-run blast and Friedl's late insurance, ultimately allowed the underdog to overcome the favored Cubs' early lead and withstand their push in the late innings. The Reds improved to 64-71, while the Cubs fell to 76-59.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Chicago Cubs (-199, 64% implied) over the Cincinnati Reds. Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 10β8, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Chicago Cubs (72% confidence). Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 10β8, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 6th inning, when the Cincinnati Reds scored 5 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson |
|
5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5.11 |
| Rhett Lowder W |
|
5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5.14 |
| Aaron Civale |
|
2.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4.55 |
| Luis Mey |
|
1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.68 |
| Daniel Palencia |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4.19 |
| Emilio Pagan S |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.90 |
| Sam Moll |
|
1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.64 |
| Trent Thornton L |
|
0.2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3.32 |
| Brock Burke |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.67 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nico Hoerner |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Stephenson |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jose Trevino |
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Hector Rodriguez |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pedro Ramirez |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Busch |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TJ Friedl |
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Bregman |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ian Happ |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Matt Shaw |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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