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MLB Final Intelligence

STL 77-85
17 – 1
FINAL
CHC 89-73

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs β€” Recap

July 3, 2026  Β· Wrigley Field  Β· View Preview

πŸ“°Game Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals delivered a stunning performance against the favored Chicago Cubs, securing a dominant 17-1 victory that dramatically shifted the narrative of their respective seasons. Entering the contest at a middling 53-53, the Cardinals defied the pregame odds against the 60-46 Cubs, who were favored with an implied 54% probability of winning. From the outset, St. Louis showed no signs of being the underdog, instead unleashing an offensive barrage that left the Cubs reeling and handed them a significant upset defeat.

The Cardinals wasted no time asserting their authority, getting on the scoreboard in the top of the second inning when Church launched a 384-foot homer to right, bringing FermΓ­n and Jordan across the plate for an early 3-0 lead. The offensive clinic continued into the third, as VelΓ‘zquez's sacrifice fly scored Herrera, followed by Masyn Winn's single to right that brought home Walker. FermΓ­n then doubled to center, scoring Winn, and by the end of the third inning, St. Louis had built a commanding 6-0 advantage, setting the tone for a long day for Chicago.

The game's undeniable turning point arrived in the top of the fourth inning, as the Cardinals exploded for five more runs to break the game wide open. Burleson singled to right, plating Herrera and Walker, before Masyn Winn cemented his standout performance with a 391-foot home run to left center, driving in VelΓ‘zquez and Burleson. This pivotal five-run outburst extended the lead to 11-0 and firmly put the game out of reach. The Cardinals continued their relentless scoring in the fifth, adding three more runs courtesy of a VelΓ‘zquez walk that scored Jordan, and another Burleson single that brought home Herrera and Walker, pushing the score to a staggering 14-0.

St. Louis refused to take their foot off the gas, with Herrera singling in the top of the sixth to score Church and Jordan, making it 16-0. Torres then added a solo 369-foot homer in the top of the seventh to further stretch the lead to 17-0. Amidst the offensive fireworks, Andre Pallante delivered a masterful pitching performance for the Cardinals, tossing 5.2 shutout innings with two strikeouts, keeping the Cubs' bats silenced. Chicago finally managed to break the shutout in the bottom of the seventh, as Bregman doubled to left, scoring Ramirez, but it was merely a consolation run in what was a runaway victory for the surprising Cardinals.

How the Prediction Fared

⚑ Upset

Pregame, the market favored the Chicago Cubs (-131, 54% implied) over the St. Louis Cardinals. Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 17–1, pulling off the upset.

Player of the Game

Masyn Winn
At the Plate
4 AB, 2 H, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Andre Pallante
On the Mound
5.2 IP, 2 K, 0 ER

Linescore

123456789 RHE
STL 0 3 3 5 3 2 1 0 0 17 171
CHC 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 71

Turning Point

The game turned in the 4th inning, when the St. Louis Cardinals scored 5 runs.

Pitching

Pitcher Team IP H R ER BB K ERA
Andre Pallante W 5.2 5 0 0 1 2 3.60
David Peterson L 3.2 9 10 10 3 3 6.75
Drew Pomeranz 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 4.81
Gavin Hollowell 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 4.05
Ryne Stanek 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 4.96

Batting

Batter Team AB H HR RBI R BB K
Ivan Herrera 4 3 0 2 3 1 0
Masyn Winn 4 2 1 4 2 0 1
Nathan Church 5 2 1 3 2 0 1
Alec Burleson 5 2 0 4 1 0 0
Alex Bregman 4 2 0 1 0 0 0
Jose Fermin 5 2 0 1 1 0 1
Carson Kelly 4 1 0 0 0 0 1
Michael Busch 4 1 0 0 0 0 1
Nico Hoerner 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
Pete Crow-Armstrong 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
JJ Wetherholt 5 1 0 0 0 0 1
Jordan Walker 4 1 0 0 3 1 2

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