MLB Final Intelligence
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals β Recap
September 19, 2026 Β· Busch Stadium Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Washington Nationals authored an extra-inning upset against the St. Louis Cardinals, breaking a deadlock with a decisive four-run 11th inning. This victory came after they relinquished leads in the seventh, ninth, and tenth frames, showcasing resilience on the road. Despite entering the contest as underdogs according to pregame market odds, the Nationals defied expectations, a scenario SportsFBI's model had predicted, citing a significant starting pitcher quality edge. Early in the contest, Washington established control. Daylen Lile launched a two-run homer in the first inning, putting the Nationals on the board. The lead extended to three in the sixth when NuΓ±ez delivered an infield single. St. Louis began its comeback bid in the seventh, scoring two runs, the first on a throwing error and the second on a single by FermΓn. The Cardinals then drew even in the bottom of the ninth on a single from PagΓ©s, forcing extra innings. The tenth inning saw both teams trade blows. Washington briefly retook the lead on Vivas's single, but St. Louis quickly answered when Winn singled to knot the score once more. However, the game decisively swung in the 11th. A fielding miscue allowed Morales to score, giving the Nationals a slim one-run advantage. Shortly thereafter, Tena's two-run double extended the lead, followed by a sacrifice fly from Crews, capping a four-run surge. Throughout the contest, Andrew Alvarez delivered a stellar performance for the Nationals, striking out eight batters over six scoreless innings, a crucial effort that kept the Cardinals at bay early and provided the foundation for the late heroics. Ultimately, Washington's ability to capitalize on extra-inning opportunities and their starting pitcher's strong outing proved too much for St. Louis. The Nationals overcame multiple comeback efforts, securing a hard-fought win on the road. Following this result, Washington's record improves to 73-82, while the Cardinals fall to 75-80.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the St. Louis Cardinals (-136, 55% implied) over the Washington Nationals. Final: the Washington Nationals won 8β5, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Washington Nationals (63% confidence). Final: the Washington Nationals won 8β5.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 11th inning, when the Washington Nationals scored 4 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez |
|
6.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3.17 |
| Michael McGreevy |
|
4.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3.84 |
| Brycen Mautz |
|
1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6.92 |
| Riley Cornelio W |
|
1.2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4.22 |
| Justin Bruihl |
|
1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.60 |
| Jack Sinclair |
|
1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.35 |
| George Soriano |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.29 |
| Gordon Graceffo L |
|
1.0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.76 |
| Riley O'Brien |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4.14 |
| Ryne Stanek |
|
0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.15 |
| Richard Lovelady |
|
0.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 |
| Yovanny Cruz |
|
0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.05 |
| Luis Gastelum |
|
0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.59 |
| Erik Tolman |
|
0.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.09 |
| Will Dion S |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.89 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorbit Vivas |
|
6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jose Fermin |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ivan Herrera |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pedro Pages |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Church |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Wood |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Daylen Lile |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jose Tena |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Wetherholt |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Crews |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nasim Nunez |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Alec Burleson |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leo Bernal |
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andres Chaparro |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Keibert Ruiz |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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