NHL Matchup Intelligence

St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators

October 13, 2026 Β· 7:30 PM ET Β· Canadian Tire Centre
STL 2-2-1  Β·  OTT 4-1-0

Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis

Matchup: St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators (Canadian Tire Centre), regular season. Ottawa Senators record: 4-1-0. St. Louis Blues record: 2-2-1. OTT last 10 (spanning the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons): 5-5-0, 2.3 goals for and 2.3 against per game. STL last 10 (spanning the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons): 6-3-1, 3.9 goals for and 3.3 against per game.

Market: OTT implied 55% to win across 2 books; total 5.5 goals. SportsFBI model: leans OTT at 52% (market 55% home); expected goals OTT 2.8, STL 2.7; 28% chance either team wins by 3+. Model factors: Rest advantage -0.7 points toward STL (Rest days difference 0 (home minus away, capped at 3)); Recent goal differential -1.95 points toward STL (Last-10 goal differential per game difference -0.60). Injury report: Cameron Crotty (OTT) Injured Reserve; Jake Sanderson (OTT) Day-To-Day; William Eklund (OTT) Injured Reserve; Alexey Toropchenko (STL) Injured Reserve; Dillon Dube (STL) Injured Reserve; Logan Mailloux (STL) Injured Reserve; Tyler Tucker (STL) Injured Reserve.

SportsFBI's model leans OTT at 52%, a provisional estimate rather than a certainty.

  • Projected score: OTT 2.8 Β· STL 2.7
  • 3+ goal margin: 28%

Automated analysis β€” the full AI preview generates about an hour before puck drop.

SportsFBI Model

Projects Ottawa Senators to win β€” 52% confidence
Market agrees (-2.7pp) Expected goals: OTT 2.8 Β· STL 2.7 3+ goal margin chance: 28%

βš–οΈ Game Edges

Key factors driving this matchup

STLA Recent goal differential +1.9 Weak

Last-10 goal differential per game difference -0.60

STLA Rest advantage +0.70 Weak

Rest days difference 0 (home minus away, capped at 3)

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