NHL Final Intelligence
Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5 — Recap
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Game Recap
Colorado opened a dominant lead over Calgary, securing a 5-2 victory. The Avalanche offense consistently pressured the Flames, outshooting them 34-27. SportsFBI's model had leaned toward a Colorado win at 83% probability, a prediction that proved correct as Colorado improved its record to 7-5-1 while Calgary fell to 6-7-0.
The Avalanche established their control early in the first period, with Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 14:13, assisted by Cale Makar and Martin Necas, for a 1-0 lead. Colorado then exploded for three goals in the second period, starting with Necas at 2:37, followed by Artturi Lehkonen at 5:48. Brock Nelson extended the lead to 4-0 at 9:07. Cale Makar played a central role in Colorado's offensive surge, collecting assists on three of these four goals, including both by Lehkonen and the opening goal by MacKinnon. Joel Farabee netted Calgary's first goal of the game at 10:50 of the second, assisted by Mikael Backlund, bringing the score to 4-1.
Calgary attempted to narrow the gap in the third period when Martin Pospisil scored at 1:59, assisted by Ryan Strome and Zayne Parekh, making it 4-2. However, Artturi Lehkonen quickly stifled the Flames' momentum with his second goal of the game at 4:09, assisted by Cale Makar and Devon Toews, restoring Colorado's three-goal advantage at 5-2. Mackenzie Blackwood made 25 saves on 27 shots for Colorado, while Arsenii Sergeev stopped 31 of 36 shots for Calgary.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Colorado Avalanche (-375, 79% implied) over the Calgary Flames.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Colorado Avalanche (83% confidence). It gave a 50% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 3 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 14:13 Nathan MacKinnon (Cale Makar, Martin Necas) COL · wrist shot · CGY 0, COL 1
- P2 2:37 Martin Necas (Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon) COL · Power play · snap shot · CGY 0, COL 2
- P2 5:48 Artturi Lehkonen (Cale Makar, Devon Toews) COL · snap shot · CGY 0, COL 3
- P2 9:07 Brock Nelson (Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar) COL · tip-in shot · CGY 0, COL 4
- P2 10:50 Joel Farabee (Mikael Backlund) CGY · slap shot · CGY 1, COL 4
- P3 1:59 Martin Pospisil (Ryan Strome, Zayne Parekh) CGY · snap shot · CGY 2, COL 4
- P3 4:09 Artturi Lehkonen (Cale Makar, Devon Toews) COL · tip-in shot · CGY 2, COL 5
Biggest Period
The Colorado Avalanche scored 3 goals in P2 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 7 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
| COL | 10 | 14 | 10 | 34 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 2Goals5% of attempts
- 25Saved66% of attempts
- 11Missed the net29% of attempts
- 5Goals11% of attempts
- 29Saved64% of attempts
- 11Missed the net24% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:34 |
| Martin Pospisil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14:36 |
| Mikael Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19:03 |
| Zayne Parekh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:04 |
| Ryan Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 |
| Simon Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23:06 |
| Kevin Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 23:02 |
| Zach Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20:32 |
| Yan Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17:52 |
| Jake Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Matt Coronato | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 |
| Aydar Suniev | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:23 |
| Morgan Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:18 |
| Matvei Gridin | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Jonathan Castagna | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12:36 |
| Adam Klapka | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:29 |
| Maxim Tsyplakov | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:11 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenii Sergeev | L | 29 | 34 | 85.3 | 5 | 60:00 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar | D | 0 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:27 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | L | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15:48 |
| Martin Necas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20:02 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 |
| Devon Toews | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20:48 |
| Brock Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Nazem Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 |
| Sam Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18:40 |
| Brett Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 |
| Brent Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:28 |
| T.J. Hughes | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 |
| Noah Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15:24 |
| Jaden Schwartz | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14:36 |
| Nicolas Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 |
| Parker Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Fedor Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:12 |
| Gavin Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12:00 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | W | 25 | 27 | 92.6 | 2 | 60:00 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar COL | Points | 1.5 | 4 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 3 | Under | |
| Nathan MacKinnon COL | Points | 1.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 4.5 | 6 | Over | |
| Devon Toews COL | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Artturi Lehkonen COL | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Martin Necas COL | Points | 1.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under | |
| Mikael Backlund CGY | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 5 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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