NHL Final Intelligence
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Mammoth 5 (OT) — Recap
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Game Recap
The Utah Mammoth defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-4 in overtime, with Dmitri Simashev scoring the winning goal. The opening period featured a flurry of scoring, as Jake Guentzel put Tampa Bay on the board first at 5:10. Kailer Yamamoto quickly answered for Utah to tie the game, but Pontus Holmberg and Brayden Point then extended the Lightning's lead to 3-1. Dylan Guenther narrowed the deficit for the Mammoth to 3-2 before the end of the period, setting the stage for a back-and-forth contest.
The Lightning again took a two-goal lead early in the second period when Conor Geekie scored to make it 4-2. However, Utah began its comeback, with Anders Lee pulling the Mammoth within one goal at 14:39. Dmitri Simashev then tied the game 4-4 at 17:02 of the second period, assisted by Andrew Peeke and Vincent Trocheck, bringing a high-scoring period to a close.
After a scoreless third period where neither team could break the 4-4 deadlock, the game proceeded to overtime. Dmitri Simashev scored his second goal of the night for Utah at 1:44 of the extra period, assisted by Barrett Hayton and Karel Vejmelka, securing the victory for the Mammoth. Vejmelka made 29 saves on 32 shots for Utah, while Dennis Hildeby stopped 23 of 28 shots for Tampa Bay. The result aligned with SportsFBI's pregame model, which indicated a 58% probability of a Utah win. Utah's record moved to 7-4-0, while Tampa Bay's record stands at 7-3-0.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Utah Mammoth (-148, 60% implied) over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Utah Mammoth (58% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 5:10 Jake Guentzel TBL · TBL 1, UTA 0
- P1 7:02 Kailer Yamamoto UTA · wrist shot · TBL 1, UTA 1
- P1 10:06 Pontus Holmberg (Erik Cernak, Ryan McDonagh) TBL · snap shot · TBL 2, UTA 1
- P1 12:42 Brayden Point (Nikita Kucherov, Charle-Edouard D'Astous) TBL · Power play · backhand shot · TBL 3, UTA 1
- P1 17:39 Dylan Guenther (Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller) UTA · Power play · slap shot · TBL 3, UTA 2
- P2 5:32 Conor Geekie (Scott Sabourin) TBL · wrist shot · TBL 4, UTA 2
- P2 14:39 Anders Lee (MacKenzie Weegar, Vincent Trocheck) UTA · tip-in shot · TBL 4, UTA 3
- P2 17:02 Dmitri Simashev (Andrew Peeke, Vincent Trocheck) UTA · snap shot · TBL 4, UTA 4
- OT 1:44 Dmitri Simashev (Barrett Hayton, Karel Vejmelka) UTA · wrist shot · TBL 4, UTA 5
Biggest Period
The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 3 goals in P1 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 12 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 33 |
| UTA | 9 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 28 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals8% of attempts
- 29Saved60% of attempts
- 15Missed the net31% of attempts
- 5Goals11% of attempts
- 23Saved49% of attempts
- 19Missed the net40% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 |
| Brayden Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Pontus Holmberg | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:11 |
| Conor Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:09 |
| Erik Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:58 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20:06 |
| Nikita Kucherov | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 |
| Ryan McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18:30 |
| Scott Sabourin | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 09:26 |
| Brandon Hagel | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22:51 |
| John Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:41 |
| J.J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20:01 |
| Anthony Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 |
| Gage Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 16:25 |
| Emil Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:26 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13:17 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 09:06 |
| Jeffrey Viel | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 08:51 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby | O | 23 | 28 | 82.1 | 5 | 61:44 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitri Simashev | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Vincent Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21:02 |
| Dylan Guenther | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19:15 |
| Kailer Yamamoto | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16:31 |
| Anders Lee | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26:01 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 25:20 |
| Andrew Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:38 |
| Clayton Keller | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Barrett Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:54 |
| Logan Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:27 |
| Nate Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:50 |
| Nick Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 |
| Lawson Crouse | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:28 |
| Kevin Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:18 |
| Nick DeSimone | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 |
| Jack McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10:06 |
| Daniil But | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 06:54 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | W | 29 | 32 | 90.6 | 4 | 61:44 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck UTA | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 2 | Over | |
| MacKenzie Weegar UTA | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Mikhail Sergachev UTA | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Brayden Point TBL | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under | |
| Anders Lee UTA | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Jake Guentzel TBL | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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