NHL Final Intelligence
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Seattle Kraken 5 — Recap
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Game Recap
Seattle Kraken secured a 5-4 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs, holding on after Toronto erased a two-goal deficit in the third period. The Kraken's win aligned with SportsFBI's pregame model, which leaned towards Seattle at 51%. Berkly Catton opened the scoring for Seattle at 1:59 of the first period, assisted by Mackie Samoskevich. Toronto answered late in the period when Gavin McKenna, with assists from Auston Matthews and Darren Raddysh, tied the game at 1-1 at 19:14.
The Kraken seized control in the second period, scoring three times to Toronto's one. Josh Mahura put Seattle ahead just 16 seconds into the period, assisted by Ben Meyers and Frederick Gaudreau. Gavin McKenna quickly responded for Toronto at 1:46, his second goal of the game, assisted by Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic, to even the score at 2-2. However, Seattle regained the lead through Chandler Stephenson at 3:33, assisted by Vince Dunn and Matty Beniers, and extended it further with Ryker Evans' goal at 10:58, assisted by Mackie Samoskevich and Chandler Stephenson, taking a 4-2 lead into the final frame.
Toronto mounted a late comeback effort in the third period. Jack Roslovic cut the deficit to one at 8:02, with assists from Easton Cowan and Troy Stecher. Auston Matthews then tied the game at 4-4 with 1:30 remaining in regulation, assisted by Darren Raddysh and Gavin McKenna. Despite outshooting Seattle 22-17, Toronto ultimately fell short as the Kraken secured the victory. Gavin McKenna led Toronto with two goals and one assist, while Auston Matthews contributed one goal and two assists. Chandler Stephenson finished with a goal and an assist for Seattle. Sergei Bobrovsky made 12 saves on 16 shots for Toronto, and Philipp Grubauer stopped 18 of 22 shots for Seattle. Following the game, Seattle's record stands at 7-4-1, while Toronto moved to 7-5-2.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Toronto Maple Leafs (-130, 57% implied) over the Seattle Kraken. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Seattle Kraken (51% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 1:59 Berkly Catton (Mackie Samoskevich) SEA · backhand shot · TOR 0, SEA 1
- P1 19:14 Gavin McKenna (Auston Matthews, Darren Raddysh) TOR · Power play · wrist shot · TOR 1, SEA 1
- P2 0:16 Josh Mahura (Ben Meyers, Frederick Gaudreau) SEA · wrist shot · TOR 1, SEA 2
- P2 1:46 Gavin McKenna (Auston Matthews, Jack Roslovic) TOR · Power play · slap shot · TOR 2, SEA 2
- P2 3:33 Chandler Stephenson (Vince Dunn, Matty Beniers) SEA · Power play · wrist shot · TOR 2, SEA 3
- P2 10:58 Ryker Evans (Mackie Samoskevich, Chandler Stephenson) SEA · wrist shot · TOR 2, SEA 4
- P3 8:02 Jack Roslovic (Easton Cowan, Troy Stecher) TOR · wrist shot · TOR 3, SEA 4
- P3 18:30 Auston Matthews (Darren Raddysh, Gavin McKenna) TOR · Power play · snap shot · TOR 4, SEA 4
- P3 19:27 Brandon Montour (Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers) SEA · slap shot · TOR 4, SEA 5
Biggest Period
The Seattle Kraken scored 3 goals in P2 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| SEA | 6 | 8 | 3 | 17 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals11% of attempts
- 18Saved47% of attempts
- 16Missed the net42% of attempts
- 5Goals16% of attempts
- 12Saved38% of attempts
- 15Missed the net47% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna | L | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 |
| Auston Matthews | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20:08 |
| Jack Roslovic | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 |
| Darren Raddysh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24:49 |
| Troy Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 21:48 |
| Easton Cowan | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 |
| Jake McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:12 |
| William Nylander | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22:13 |
| Morgan Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:52 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:45 |
| Nick Paul | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:19 |
| Colton Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13:49 |
| Brandon Duhaime | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 13:35 |
| Teddy Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:59 |
| Dakota Mermis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 09:52 |
| Vinni Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 09:15 |
| Zack MacEwen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 08:21 |
| Bo Groulx | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 06:23 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | L | 12 | 17 | 70.6 | 5 | 59:16 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:08 |
| Matty Beniers | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:26 |
| Mackie Samoskevich | R | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:21 |
| Brandon Montour | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 27:10 |
| Ryker Evans | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 22:57 |
| Berkly Catton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 |
| Josh Mahura | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11:07 |
| Vince Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:49 |
| Jordan Eberle | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:13 |
| Frederick Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 |
| Ben Meyers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:38 |
| Adam Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:21 |
| Bobby McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19:05 |
| Shane Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:43 |
| Kaapo Kakko | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:10 |
| Ryan Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:02 |
| Jani Nyman | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 08:42 |
| Cale Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 08:18 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer | W | 18 | 22 | 81.8 | 4 | 59:51 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna TOR | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Auston Matthews TOR | Points | 1.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 4.5 | 4 | Under | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Matty Beniers SEA | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Chandler Stephenson SEA | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
⚔️ Season Series & What's Next
More NHL Results — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
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