NHL Final Intelligence

VGK 8-3-0
2 – 6
FINAL
STL 4-4-1

Vegas Golden Knights 2, St. Louis Blues 6 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The St. Louis Blues quickly established control against the Vegas Golden Knights, building an early two-goal advantage in the first period. Pavel Buchnevich opened the scoring 10 minutes into the game, assisted by Jonatan Berggren and Connor McMichael. Justin Barron extended the lead just under four minutes later with helpers from Aleksanteri Kaskimaki and Otto Stenberg, giving St. Louis a 2-0 lead. This early surge defied the SportsFBI pregame model, which favored Vegas at 57%.

Vegas got on the scoreboard in the second period when Brett Howden scored with assists from Noah Hanifin and Alexander Holtz, narrowing the deficit to one goal at 5:38. However, St. Louis responded swiftly, with Mason McTavish restoring their two-goal cushion just under three minutes later, assisted by Adam Jiricek and Justin Barron. The teams traded goals in the middle frame, keeping St. Louis ahead entering the final period. Shots on goal were fairly even throughout the contest, with St. Louis recording 31 to Vegas's 29.

The Golden Knights again cut into the lead early in the third period, with Jack Eichel making it a 3-2 game at 4:08, assisted by Ivan Barbashev and Brayden McNabb. This time, St. Louis responded with a decisive outburst, scoring three unanswered goals to put the game out of reach. Jimmy Snuggerud scored at 8:21, followed by Dylan Holloway at 10:29, both assisted by Justin Barron, who finished the game with a goal and three assists. Holloway netted his second of the period and the game at 16:05, with Jake Neighbours and Jimmy Snuggerud assisting, solidifying St. Louis's 6-2 victory. Joel Hofer made 27 saves on 29 shots for St. Louis, earning the win, while Adin Hill stopped 25 of 31 for Vegas. The win improved St. Louis's record to 4-4-1, while Vegas dropped to 8-3-0.

#StLouisBlues #VegasGoldenKnights #NHLRecap #JustinBarron #DylanHolloway

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Upset

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Vegas Golden Knights (-125, 56% implied) over the St. Louis Blues. The underdog won.

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Vegas Golden Knights (57% confidence). It gave a 29% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 4 goals.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · VGK -1.5 STL covered Won by 4
Total · 6.5 Over 8 combined
Moneyline VGK -115 · STL -104 VGK favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (STL) +1.5+1.5 No move
Total 5.56.5 +1
Moneyline (STL) +116-104 -220

Standouts

Top Scorer · STL
Justin Barron
1 G, 3 A, 4 PTS, 4 SOG · 20:23 TOI
Goals · STL
Dylan Holloway
2 G, 1 A, 3 PTS, 3 SOG · 18:40 TOI
Goaltending · STL
Joel Hofer
27 saves on 29 shots (.931) · W
Season highs
Justin Barron · Season-high 4 pointsDylan Holloway · Season-high 2 goals

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

VGK 0 largest lead Never led
STL 4 largest lead P3 16:05 (VGK 2, STL 6) · 3-0 run, P3 8:21–P3 16:05
Swings 0 lead changes Tied 0 times
Scoring summary
  • P1 10:00 Pavel Buchnevich (Jonatan Berggren, Connor McMichael) STL · Power play · wrist shot · VGK 0, STL 1
  • P1 13:49 Justin Barron (Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, Otto Stenberg) STL · wrist shot · VGK 0, STL 2
  • P2 5:38 Brett Howden (Noah Hanifin, Alexander Holtz) VGK · wrist shot · VGK 1, STL 2
  • P2 8:30 Mason McTavish (Adam Jiricek, Justin Barron) STL · tip-in shot · VGK 1, STL 3
  • P3 4:08 Jack Eichel (Ivan Barbashev, Brayden McNabb) VGK · backhand shot · VGK 2, STL 3
  • P3 8:21 Jimmy Snuggerud (Dylan Holloway, Justin Barron) STL · wrist shot · VGK 2, STL 4
  • P3 10:29 Dylan Holloway (Robert Thomas, Justin Barron) STL · wrist shot · VGK 2, STL 5
  • P3 16:05 Dylan Holloway (Jake Neighbours, Jimmy Snuggerud) STL · Power play · snap shot · VGK 2, STL 6

Linescore

123 T
VGK 011 2
STL 213 6

Shots on goal: VGK 29, STL 31

Biggest Period

The St. Louis Blues scored 3 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.

📋 Team Stats

VGKSTL
28Shots on goal31
61Shot attempts54
29Faceoff wins30
36Hits13
11Blocked shots13
0Power-play goals2
3Takeaways2
19Giveaways18
4Penalty minutes0
80.6%Save %92.9%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
VGK891128
STL1012931

🎯 Shot Map

Vegas Golden Knights2 G · 48 attempts
Alexander Holtz: missed the netTomas Hertl: saved (tip-in)Alexander Holtz: saved (wrist)Braeden Bowman: missed the netWilliam Karlsson: missed the netDylan Coghlan: saved (wrist)Jack Eichel: saved (wrist)Jack Eichel: missed the netMark Stone: saved (tip-in)Raphael Lavoie: saved (wrist)Jack Eichel: saved (wrist)Brayden McNabb: saved (wrist)Mark Stone: missed the netTrevor Connelly: missed the netBrett Howden: saved (tip-in)Brett Howden: goal (wrist)Marc Gatcomb: saved (wrist)Ivan Barbashev: missed the netBrayden McNabb: saved (snap)Alexander Holtz: saved (wrist)Jeremy Lauzon: missed the netIvan Barbashev: missed the netIvan Barbashev: missed the netTrevor Connelly: missed the netWilliam Karlsson: saved (wrist)Shea Theodore: saved (wrist)Alexander Holtz: saved (wrist)Alexander Holtz: missed the netNic Dowd: missed the netMark Stone: saved (wrap-around)Mark Stone: missed the netShea Theodore: saved (wrist)Brett Howden: saved (wrist)Alexander Holtz: saved (wrist)Alexander Holtz: missed the netShea Theodore: saved (wrist)Rasmus Andersson: missed the netMarc Gatcomb: saved (wrist)Shea Theodore: missed the netJack Eichel: goal (backhand)Mark Stone: saved (wrist)Brett Howden: saved (wrist)Tomas Hertl: missed the netAlexander Holtz: saved (wrist)Tomas Hertl: saved (wrist)Alexander Holtz: missed the netBrayden McNabb: saved (wrist)Mark Stone: missed the net
  • 2Goals4% of attempts
  • 26Saved54% of attempts
  • 20Missed the net42% of attempts
St. Louis Blues6 G · 39 attempts
Justin Barron: saved (wrist)Pavel Buchnevich: saved (wrist)Jonatan Berggren: saved (snap)Justin Barron: saved (wrist)Jimmy Snuggerud: missed the netJake Neighbours: saved (wrist)Pavel Buchnevich: goal (wrist)Connor McMichael: missed the netColton Parayko: saved (wrist)Justin Barron: goal (wrist)Jonatan Berggren: saved (wrist)Mason McTavish: saved (tip-in)Philip Broberg: saved (slap)Philip Broberg: missed the netAdam Jiricek: missed the netPavel Buchnevich: saved (backhand)Philip Broberg: saved (wrist)Dalibor Dvorsky: saved (wrist)Mason McTavish: goal (tip-in)Aleksanteri Kaskimaki: saved (wrist)Adam Jiricek: saved (slap)Philip Broberg: saved (wrist)Robert Thomas: saved (backhand)Aleksanteri Kaskimaki: saved (backhand)Aleksanteri Kaskimaki: saved (tip-in)Justin Barron: saved (slap)Dylan Holloway: missed the netAdam Jiricek: saved (wrist)Jimmy Snuggerud: goal (wrist)Otto Stenberg: missed the netPius Suter: saved (wrist)Aleksanteri Kaskimaki: saved (wrist)Pius Suter: missed the netDylan Holloway: goal (wrist)Dylan Holloway: saved (wrist)Philip Broberg: missed the netColton Parayko: saved (wrist)Dylan Holloway: goal (snap)Dalibor Dvorsky: saved (wrist)
  • 6Goals15% of attempts
  • 25Saved64% of attempts
  • 8Missed the net21% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

VGK skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Jack Eichel C 101031016:46
Brett Howden C 101042015:53
Brayden McNabb D 011032122:47
Noah Hanifin D 011-101121:09
Ivan Barbashev L 011006018:52
Alexander Holtz R 011051014:04
Shea Theodore D 000030022:37
Rasmus Andersson D 000-200319:48
Jeremy Lauzon D 000-104118:15
Mark Stone R 000032016:46
William Karlsson C 000010016:34
Dylan Coghlan D 000010115:28
Braeden Bowman R 000-100014:56
Tomas Hertl C 000024214:20
Trevor Connelly L 000001013:53
Nic Dowd C 000-203111:56
Marc Gatcomb C 000-223111:56
Raphael Lavoie C 000-116011:51
VGK goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Adin Hill L 253180.6660:00
STL skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Justin Barron D 134+440020:23
Dylan Holloway L 213032218:40
Jimmy Snuggerud R 112+110017:34
Pavel Buchnevich L 101030017:14
Mason McTavish C 101+220014:06
Robert Thomas C 011+110419:27
Jake Neighbours L 011+113116:38
Adam Jiricek D 011+220216:20
Jonatan Berggren R 011021013:49
Connor McMichael L 011000013:14
Aleksanteri Kaskimaki C 011+141012:38
Otto Stenberg C 011+102111:36
Philip Broberg D 000+130222:51
Cam Fowler D 000-200020:32
Brandon Carlo D 000002019:27
Colton Parayko D 000-120018:36
Dalibor Dvorsky R 000-122015:05
Pius Suter C 000010111:50
STL goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Joel Hofer W 262892.9260:00

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Dylan Holloway STL Points0.53 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.52 Over
Shots on goal2.53 Over
Jimmy Snuggerud STL Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.51 Under
Mason McTavish STL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.52 Over
Pavel Buchnevich STL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Shots on goal1.53 Over
Robert Thomas STL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.51 Under
Ivan Barbashev VGK Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.50 Under

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series VGK 0 – 1 STL
Last 4 meetings · since 2025-26 VGK 2 – 2 STL
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Vegas Golden Knights 8-4-0 L2 L10 7-3-0 Next game recap: @ CBJ · Sat, Oct 24
St. Louis Blues 5-4-1 W2 L10 5-4-1 Next game recap: vs CAR · Sat, Oct 24

🔍 Key Suspects Results

8 of 13 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

VGK — Away
Jack Eichel Jack Eichel C Shots on Goal · FanDuel 2.5 UNDER MISS Actual 3
Mark Stone Mark Stone RW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Brett Howden Brett Howden C Anytime Goal · FanDuel 1+ MILESTONE HIT Actual 1
Tomas Hertl Tomas Hertl C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 OVER HIT Actual 2
STL — Home
Mason McTavish Mason McTavish C Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Dylan Holloway Dylan Holloway LW Assists · BetMGM 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Philip Broberg Philip Broberg D Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Robert Thomas Robert Thomas C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Connor McMichael Connor McMichael LW Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Jimmy Snuggerud Jimmy Snuggerud RW Shots on Goal · DraftKings 2+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 1
Jake Neighbours Jake Neighbours LW Points · DraftKings 2+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 1
Pius Suter Pius Suter C Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Pavel Buchnevich Pavel Buchnevich LW Assists · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0

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