โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

BAL vs
NYY

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

May 3, 2026 ยท 1:35 PM ET ยท Yankee Stadium
BAL 79-82  ยท  NYY 93-68

๐Ÿ Final: BAL 3, NYY 11 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† New York Yankees
Confidence 72%
Projected Score NYY 5 ยท BAL 3
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYY Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Key injuries BAL (Samuel Basallo) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY SP quality edge (FIP 2.68 vs 5.60, PF 1.06) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BAL NYY SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY BAL SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Defensive edge (dWAR 3.0) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Recent run diff (+4.2 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BAL NYY SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

BAL โ€” Away RHP
Trey Gibson
Trey Gibson
ERA6.13
WHIP1.71
FIP5.60
K/98.5
K/BB2.3
vs
NYY โ€” Home LHP
Max Fried
Max Fried
ERA2.80
WHIP0.99
FIP2.59
K/98.3
K/BB5.7
Home ERA: 3.60

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

BAL โ€” Away
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Adley Rutschman C
  3. 3 Pete Alonso DH
  4. 4 Tyler O'Neill RF
  5. 5 Coby Mayo 1B
  6. 6 Leody Taveras CF
  7. 7 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  8. 8 Weston Wilson 3B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander SS
NYY โ€” Home
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Ben Rice 1B
  3. 3 Aaron Judge RF
  4. 4 Cody Bellinger LF
  5. 5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  6. 6 Jasson Dominguez DH
  7. 7 Austin Wells C
  8. 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
  9. 9 Jose Caballero SS

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

BAL Away NYY Home
Team OPS 0.704 0.722
Bullpen FIP 3.94 4.52
Run Diff / 10G -1.7 +2.5
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
BAL +1.5 (-195)
NYY -1.5 (+148)
Total (O/U)
Over 7.5 (-123)
Under 7.5 (-106)
Moneyline
BAL +860
NYY -2400

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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