โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

BOS vs
NYM

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

July 11, 2026 ยท 4:10 PM ET ยท Citi Field
BOS 87-75  ยท  NYM 74-88

๐Ÿ Final: BOS 4, NYM 0 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† New York Mets
Confidence 64%
Projected Score NYM 4 ยท BOS 2
Blowout Probability 9%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYM Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Key injuries NYM (Jared Young, Christian Scott) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM SP confirmed NYM, away TBD โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS NYM SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 5.9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Recent run diff (+3.1 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM SP home venue edge (ERA 1.76 H vs 4.32 A) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

BOS โ€” Away LHP
Eduardo Rivera
Eduardo Rivera
vs
NYM โ€” Home RHP
Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta
ERA4.42
WHIP1.32
FIP4.14
K/98.3
K/BB5.0
Home ERA: 1.76

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

BOS โ€” Away
  1. 1 Anthony Seigler 2B
  2. 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Caleb Durbin 3B
  5. 5 Masataka Yoshida DH
  6. 6 Andruw Monasterio 1B
  7. 7 Jarren Duran LF
  8. 8 Carlos Narvaez C
  9. 9 Tsung-Che Cheng SS
NYM โ€” Home
  1. 1 A.J. Ewing CF
  2. 2 Juan Soto LF
  3. 3 Francisco Lindor SS
  4. 4 Carson Benge RF
  5. 5 Jorge Polanco DH
  6. 6 Eric Wagaman 1B
  7. 7 Francisco Alvarez C
  8. 8 Brett Baty 3B
  9. 9 Zack Short 2B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

BOS Away NYM Home
Team OPS 0.685 0.663
Bullpen FIP 3.55 4.39
Run Diff / 10G +1.7 -1.4
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -3 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
BOS -3.5 (+118)
NYM +3.5 (-154)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (+104)
Under 5.5 (-135)
Moneyline
BOS -3300
NYM +970

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

BOS โ€” Away
Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela CF
Singles
0.5
59 ยท OVER
Tsung-Che Cheng Tsung-Che Cheng SS
Singles
0.5
52 ยท OVER
NYM โ€” Home
Carson Benge Carson Benge RF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
69 ยท OVER
A.J. Ewing A.J. Ewing CF
Singles
0.5
58 ยท OVER
Juan Soto Juan Soto LF
Singles
0.5
57 ยท OVER
Francisco Lindor Francisco Lindor SS
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
55 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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