โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

MIA vs
TB

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 15, 2026 ยท 7:10 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
MIA 80-82  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: MIA 2, TB 7 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 72%
Projected Score TB 7 ยท MIA 4
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries MIA (Jakob Marsee) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 2.99 vs 3.60, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 5.4) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+2.5 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA TB SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

MIA โ€” Away RHP
Janson Junk
Janson Junk
ERA4.22
WHIP1.29
FIP4.04
K/96.5
K/BB4.1
Road ERA: 4.29
vs
TB โ€” Home LHP
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour
ERA4.21
WHIP1.13
FIP3.99
K/910.8
K/BB8.3
Home ERA: 5.33

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

MIA โ€” Away
  1. 1 Xavier Edwards 2B
  2. 2 Liam Hicks DH
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Christopher Morel 1B
  5. 5 Kyle Stowers LF
  6. 6 Connor Norby 3B
  7. 7 Jakob Marsee CF
  8. 8 Esteury Ruiz RF
  9. 9 Joe Mack C
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Diaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 6 Richie Palacios 2B
  7. 7 Cedric Mullins CF
  8. 8 Hunter Feduccia C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

MIA Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.710 0.710
Bullpen FIP 3.97 4.55
Run Diff / 10G -0.9 +1.6
Days Rest 0 1
Streak 1 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
MIA +3.5 (+146)
TB -3.5 (-192)
Total (O/U)
Over 10.5 (+122)
Under 10.5 (-159)
Moneyline
MIA +1180
TB -6900

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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