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MLB Matchup Intelligence

MIA vs
TB

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 16, 2026 ยท 4:10 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
MIA 80-82  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: MIA 10, TB 5 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Miami Marlins
Confidence 72%
Projected Score MIA 6 ยท TB 3
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries MIA (Jakob Marsee) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 3.14 vs 3.92, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 5.2) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+3.3 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA TB SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

MIA โ€” Away RHP
Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara
ERA3.87
WHIP1.23
FIP3.96
K/96.4
K/BB4.0
Road ERA: 4.56
vs
TB โ€” Home RHP
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
ERA3.10
WHIP1.09
FIP3.91
K/95.5
K/BB4.2
Home ERA: 3.98

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

MIA โ€” Away
  1. 1 Xavier Edwards 2B
  2. 2 Liam Hicks DH
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Kyle Stowers LF
  5. 5 Connor Norby 1B
  6. 6 Jakob Marsee CF
  7. 7 Javier Sanoja 3B
  8. 8 Owen Caissie RF
  9. 9 Joe Mack C
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Diaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 5 Richie Palacios 2B
  7. 6 Cedric Mullins CF
  8. 7 Jonny DeLuca RF
  9. 8 Hunter Feduccia C
  10. 9 Taylor Walls SS

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

MIA Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.745 0.712
Bullpen FIP 3.97 4.55
Run Diff / 10G -1.3 +2.0
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
MIA -2.5 (-137)
TB +2.5 (+106)
Total (O/U)
Over 8.5 (+101)
Under 8.5 (-132)
Moneyline
MIA -2900
TB +920

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

MIA โ€” Away

No data yet.

TB โ€” Home
Nick Martinez Nick Martinez SP
Outs
17.5
51 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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