โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

PIT vs
NYY

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees

July 22, 2026 ยท 1:05 PM ET ยท Yankee Stadium
PIT 82-80  ยท  NYY 93-68

๐Ÿ Final: PIT 5, NYY 3 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† New York Yankees
Confidence 55%
Projected Score NYY 5 ยท PIT 4
Blowout Probability 3%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYY Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Key injuries PIT (Oneil Cruz) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY SP quality edge (FIP 3.77 vs 5.20, PF 1.06) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT NYY SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Defensive edge (dWAR 3.1) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Recent run diff (+1.2 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
PIT Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

PIT โ€” Away RHP
Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
ERA5.29
WHIP1.38
FIP4.34
K/97.0
K/BB3.7
Road ERA: 5.17
vs
NYY โ€” Home RHP
Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
ERA3.61
WHIP1.10
FIP3.88
K/99.3
K/BB7.5
Home ERA: 3.92

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

PIT โ€” Away
  1. 1 Jake Mangum CF
  2. 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
  3. 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
  4. 4 Esmerlyn Valdez RF
  5. 5 Ryan O'Hearn DH
  6. 6 Nick Gonzales 3B
  7. 7 Jacob Gonzalez SS
  8. 8 Henry Davis C
  9. 9 Tyler Callihan 1B
NYY โ€” Home
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Ben Rice 1B
  3. 3 Spencer Jones DH
  4. 4 Cody Bellinger LF
  5. 5 Jasson Dominguez RF
  6. 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  7. 7 Jose Caballero SS
  8. 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
  9. 9 Austin Wells C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

PIT Away NYY Home
Team OPS 0.731 0.708
Bullpen FIP 3.99 4.52
Run Diff / 10G +1.8 +0.6
Days Rest 1 1
Streak 1 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
PIT -1.5 (-401)
NYY +1.5 (+279)
Total (O/U)
Over 8.5 (+264)
Under 8.5 (-376)
Moneyline
PIT -3700
NYY +1040

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

PIT โ€” Away
Bryan Reynolds Bryan Reynolds LF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
78 ยท UNDER
Ryan O'Hearn Ryan O'Hearn DH
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
78 ยท OVER
Jake Mangum Jake Mangum CF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
74 ยท UNDER
Henry Davis Henry Davis C
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
65 ยท UNDER
NYY โ€” Home
Austin Wells Austin Wells C
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
78 ยท UNDER
Ryan McMahon Ryan McMahon 3B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
77 ยท OVER
Jose Caballero Jose Caballero SS
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
75 ยท UNDER
Gerrit Cole Gerrit Cole SP
Outs
17.5
51 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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