โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

SD vs
SEA

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners

May 15, 2026 ยท 9:40 PM ET ยท T-Mobile Park
SD 91-71  ยท  SEA 76-86

๐Ÿ Final: SD 2, SEA 0 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† San Diego Padres
Confidence 72%
Projected Score SD 3 ยท SEA 0
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SEA Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries SD (Casey Mize) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD SP quality edge (FIP 4.00 vs 4.26, PF 0.94) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Defensive edge (dWAR 3.1) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Recent run diff (+1.6 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

SD โ€” Away RHP
Randy Vasquez
Randy Vasquez
ERA3.90
WHIP1.26
FIP4.13
K/95.6
K/BB3.2
Road ERA: 3.59
vs
SEA โ€” Home RHP
Emerson Hancock
Emerson Hancock
ERA3.57
WHIP1.14
FIP3.85
K/98.2
K/BB6.1
Home ERA: 3.31

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

SD โ€” Away
  1. 1 Jackson Merrill CF
  2. 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
  3. 3 Manny Machado 3B
  4. 4 Gavin Sheets 1B
  5. 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
  6. 6 Miguel Andujar DH
  7. 7 Ramon Laureano LF
  8. 8 Sung-Mun Song 2B
  9. 9 Freddy Fermin C
SEA โ€” Home
  1. 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
  2. 2 Julio Rodriguez CF
  3. 3 Josh Naylor 1B
  4. 4 Randy Arozarena LF
  5. 5 Luke Raley RF
  6. 6 J.P. Crawford SS
  7. 7 Dominic Canzone DH
  8. 8 Cole Young 2B
  9. 9 Jhonny Pereda C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

SD Away SEA Home
Team OPS 0.686 0.744
Bullpen FIP 3.44 4.56
Run Diff / 10G -0.2 +1.4
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 4 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
SD -1.5 (-1800)
SEA +1.5 (+750)
Total (O/U)
Over 2.5 (+730)
Under 2.5 (-1680)
Moneyline
SD -10000
SEA +1380

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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