โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

SD vs
SEA

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners

May 16, 2026 ยท 7:15 PM ET ยท T-Mobile Park
SD 91-71  ยท  SEA 76-86

๐Ÿ Final: SD 7, SEA 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† San Diego Padres
Confidence 72%
Projected Score SD 7 ยท SEA 5
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SEA Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries SD (Casey Mize) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD SP quality edge (FIP 3.89 vs 4.21, PF 0.94) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Catcher arm edge (CS% 16pp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Recent run diff (+1.0 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD SEA SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

SD โ€” Away RHP
Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler
ERA4.63
WHIP1.35
FIP4.37
K/97.7
K/BB4.3
Road ERA: 5.34
vs
SEA โ€” Home RHP
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert
ERA3.73
WHIP1.09
FIP3.71
K/99.9
K/BB7.5
Home ERA: 4.53

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

SD โ€” Away
  1. 1 Jackson Merrill CF
  2. 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B
  3. 3 Manny Machado DH
  4. 4 Gavin Sheets 1B
  5. 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
  6. 6 Miguel Andujar 3B
  7. 7 Nick Castellanos RF
  8. 8 Ramon Laureano LF
  9. 9 Rodolfo Duran C
SEA โ€” Home
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
  3. 2 Julio Rodriguez CF
  4. 3 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 4 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 5 Luke Raley RF
  7. 6 Cole Young 2B
  8. 7 Dominic Canzone DH
  9. 8 Mitch Garver C
  10. 8 Jhonny Pereda C
  11. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

SD Away SEA Home
Team OPS 0.682 0.705
Bullpen FIP 3.44 4.56
Run Diff / 10G +0.1 +1.1
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 4 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
SD -2.5 (-470)
SEA +2.5 (+317)
Total (O/U)
Over 11.5 (+308)
Under 11.5 (-452)
Moneyline
SD -6800
SEA +1180

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

SD โ€” Away
Walker Buehler Walker Buehler SP
Pitcher Ks
3.5
56 ยท OVER
SEA โ€” Home
Logan Gilbert Logan Gilbert SP
Outs
17.5
51 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

Launch Workspace Back to MLB