โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

SD vs
SEA

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners

May 17, 2026 ยท 7:20 PM ET ยท T-Mobile Park
SD 91-71  ยท  SEA 76-86

๐Ÿ Final: SD 8, SEA 3 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† San Diego Padres
Confidence 72%
Projected Score SD 8 ยท SEA 5
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SEA Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries SD (Casey Mize) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA SP quality edge (FIP 3.28 vs 6.01, PF 0.94) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD SEA SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Defensive edge (dWAR 3.0) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Catcher arm edge (CS% 16pp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Recent run diff (+1.0 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA SP home venue edge (ERA 3.56 H vs 5.55 A) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

SD โ€” Away RHP
Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito
ERA5.16
WHIP1.85
FIP6.01
K/95.5
K/BB-1.5
vs
SEA โ€” Home RHP
George Kirby
George Kirby
ERA4.33
WHIP1.40
FIP3.85
K/97.6
K/BB5.2
Home ERA: 3.56

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

SD โ€” Away
  1. 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B
  2. 2 Miguel Andujar 3B
  3. 3 Gavin Sheets LF
  4. 4 Manny Machado DH
  5. 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
  6. 6 Jackson Merrill CF
  7. 7 Ramon Laureano RF
  8. 8 Ty France 1B
  9. 9 Freddy Fermin C
SEA โ€” Home
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Julio Rodriguez CF
  3. 3 Josh Naylor 1B
  4. 4 Randy Arozarena LF
  5. 5 Luke Raley RF
  6. 6 Cole Young 2B
  7. 7 Dominic Canzone DH
  8. 8 Mitch Garver C
  9. 9 Colt Emerson 3B
  10. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

SD Away SEA Home
Team OPS 0.723 0.680
Bullpen FIP 3.44 4.56
Run Diff / 10G -0.1 +0.9
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 4 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
SD -4.5 (-117)
SEA +4.5 (-116)
Total (O/U)
Over 12.5 (-136)
Under 12.5 (+105)
Moneyline
SD -9500
SEA +1240

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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