โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

SEA vs
TB

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

July 11, 2026 ยท 4:10 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
SEA 76-86  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: SEA 1, TB 6 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Seattle Mariners
Confidence 65%
Projected Score SEA 3 ยท TB 2
Blowout Probability 10%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA SP quality edge (FIP 2.71 vs 3.66, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 5.7) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Recent run diff (+0.8 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA SP road mastery (ERA 2.77 R vs 4.53 H) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Line move (32pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

SEA โ€” Away RHP
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert
ERA3.73
WHIP1.09
FIP3.71
K/99.9
K/BB7.5
Road ERA: 2.77
vs
TB โ€” Home RHP
Griffin Jax
Griffin Jax
ERA3.53
WHIP1.18
FIP3.71
K/99.3
K/BB6.5
Home ERA: 2.91

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

SEA โ€” Away
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford 3B
  2. 2 Randy Arozarena LF
  3. 3 Dominic Canzone DH
  4. 4 Cal Raleigh C
  5. 5 Josh Naylor 1B
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 Cole Young 2B
  8. 8 Victor Robles CF
  9. 9 Colt Emerson SS
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Yandy Diaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Cedric Mullins CF
  5. 5 Jonny DeLuca RF
  6. 6 Chandler Simpson LF
  7. 7 Ben Williamson SS
  8. 8 Richie Palacios 2B
  9. 9 Nick Fortes C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

SEA Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.703 0.726
Bullpen FIP 4.56 4.55
Run Diff / 10G +1.1 +0.3
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 2 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
SEA +1.5 (-243)
TB -1.5 (+181)
Total (O/U)
Over 4.5 (-120)
Under 4.5 (-108)
Moneyline
SEA +417
TB -670

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

SEA โ€” Away
Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena LF
Runs
1.5
67 ยท UNDER
Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone DH
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
65 ยท OVER
J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford 3B
Singles
0.5
57 ยท OVER
Logan Gilbert Logan Gilbert SP
Outs
17.5
53 ยท UNDER
TB โ€” Home
Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson LF
Singles
0.5
71 ยท OVER
Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz DH
Singles
0.5
56 ยท OVER
Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 3B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
55 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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