โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

STL vs
SD

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres

May 10, 2026 ยท 4:10 PM ET ยท Petco Park
STL 77-85  ยท  SD 91-71

๐Ÿ Final: STL 2, SD 3 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† San Diego Padres
Confidence 72%
Projected Score SD 4 ยท STL 2
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SD Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Key injuries SD (Casey Mize) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD SP quality edge (FIP 3.52 vs 4.22, PF 0.91) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Recent run diff (+2.0 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SD SP home venue edge (ERA 4.38 H vs 5.34 A) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

STL โ€” Away RHP
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
ERA3.66
WHIP1.34
FIP3.49
K/98.5
K/BB5.9
Road ERA: 4.00
vs
SD โ€” Home RHP
Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler
ERA4.63
WHIP1.35
FIP4.37
K/97.7
K/BB4.3
Home ERA: 4.38

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

STL โ€” Away
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Ivan Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church CF
  8. 8 Thomas Saggese LF
  9. 9 Pedro Pages C
SD โ€” Home
  1. 1 Jackson Merrill CF
  2. 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
  3. 3 Manny Machado 3B
  4. 4 Gavin Sheets LF
  5. 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
  6. 6 Miguel Andujar DH
  7. 7 Ty France 1B
  8. 8 Sung-Mun Song 2B
  9. 9 Rodolfo Duran C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

STL Away SD Home
Team OPS 0.682 0.702
Bullpen FIP 3.97 3.44
Run Diff / 10G +1.3 -0.7
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -4 4

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
STL +1.5 (-3200)
SD -1.5 (+960)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (+587)
Under 5.5 (-1140)
Moneyline
STL +1380
SD -10000

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

STL โ€” Away
Kyle Leahy Kyle Leahy SP
Pitcher Ks
3.5
57 ยท OVER
SD โ€” Home

No data yet.

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

Launch Workspace Back to MLB