Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Indianapolis Colts face Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8 at EverBank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Indianapolis Colts’s 24.0 points per game against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing 17.3. In the other direction, Jacksonville Jaguars average 25.7 against Indianapolis Colts’s 27.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Special teams efficiency; Pass defense.
The current model leans toward JAX at 64.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXH Starting QB efficiency +2.1 Very Strong
Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE · Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE
JAXH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
JAX home field | JAX 14 days / IND 14 days
JAXH Run-game matchup +0.78 Strong
JAX 4.1 rush Y/A / 3.2 allowed | IND 4.0 / 4.8 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
JAXH Record quality +0.67 Strong
JAX 4-2 · IND 2-4
JAXH Early-down efficiency +0.39 Weak
47% / 44% allowed | 44% / 45% allowed
JAXH Raw scoring differential +0.37 Moderate
JAX 25.7 PPG · IND 24.0 PPG | JAX 17.3 PA/G · IND 27.3 PA/G
JAXH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.34 Moderate
67% / 40% allowed | 63% / 61% allowed
JAXH Turnover differential +0.32 Strong
JAX 0.7 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | IND 1.8 / 0.5
JAXH Third-down efficiency +0.21 Weak
JAX OFF 47.9% / DEF 36.2% | IND 37.3% / 30.4% | PBP 80%/56%/30% | 64%/45%/11%
JAXH OL vs DL matchup +0.17 Weak
JAX OL sack 5.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | IND 6.4% / 5.0%
JAXH Recent form +0.15 Weak
JAX L1 · IND L2
INDA Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
JAX FG 83.3% / NET PUNT 43.3 | IND 100.0% / 44.2
JAXH Explosive-play differential +0.08 Weak
7% / 7% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
JAXH Schedule strength +0.06 Weak
JAX 54% opp wins · IND 51%
INDA Pass defense +0.06 Weak
JAX 7.4 net Y/A / 66.0% CMP / 87.7 RATE | IND 6.9 / 61.4% / 98.2
JAXH Game-script tendencies +0.03 Weak
55% neutral pass / 58 plays | 55% / 63
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