Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders face New York Jets in Week 8 at MetLife Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Las Vegas Raiders enter with a 3-3 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 27.0 points scored and 27.0 allowed. Their current streak is 3 losses.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Las Vegas Raiders’s 27.0 points per game against a New York Jets defense allowing 20.3. In the other direction, New York Jets average 18.7 against Las Vegas Raiders’s 27.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Las Vegas Raiders have injury designations to monitor: Tonka Hemingway (DT) — Questionable; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Doubtful; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Early-down efficiency; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Las Vegas Raiders are OL vs DL matchup; Record quality.
The current model leans toward NYJ at 57.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Las Vegas Raiders 3-3
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NYJH Early-down efficiency +1.1 Strong
48% / 44% allowed | 41% / 48% allowed
NYJH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NYJ home field | NYJ 14 days / LV 14 days
NYJH Pass defense +0.54 Moderate
NYJ 5.3 net Y/A / 61.5% CMP / 93.1 RATE | LV 6.8 / 63.7% / 101.8
LVA OL vs DL matchup +0.46 Moderate
NYJ OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 8.1% | LV 3.5% / 7.2%
LVA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
NYJ 2-4 · LV 3-3
NYJH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
NYJ L1 · LV L3
NYJH Run-game matchup +0.30 Weak
NYJ 3.6 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | LV 3.0 / 4.9 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 70% stuff avoided
NYJH Starting QB efficiency +0.29 Weak
Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE · Kirk Cousins (2026) 63.4% CMP / 7.4 Y/A / 6.6% TD / 2.3% INT / 98.0 RATE
NYJH Schedule strength +0.20 Moderate
NYJ 57% opp wins · LV 47%
LVA Special teams efficiency +0.20 Moderate
NYJ FG 92.3% / NET PUNT 42.3 | LV 93.3% / 46.8
NYJH Explosive-play differential +0.20 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 7% allowed
NYJH Third-down efficiency +0.14 Weak
NYJ OFF 35.1% / DEF 37.7% | LV 42.3% / 41.3% | PBP 60%/41%/25% | 60%/50%/33%
LVA Game-script tendencies +0.06 Weak
54% neutral pass / 55 plays | 58% / 62
LVA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.05 Weak
31% / 50% allowed | 57% / 74% allowed
LVA Raw scoring differential +0.04 Weak
NYJ 18.7 PPG · LV 27.0 PPG | NYJ 20.3 PA/G · LV 27.0 PA/G
NYJH Turnover differential +0.04 Weak
NYJ 0.7 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | LV 1.3 / 1.7
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