Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New Orleans Saints face Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 at Paycor Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New Orleans Saints enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.3 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.6 points scored and 21.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts New Orleans Saints’s 25.3 points per game against a Cincinnati Bengals defense allowing 21.8. In the other direction, Cincinnati Bengals average 25.6 against New Orleans Saints’s 29.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New Orleans Saints have injury designations to monitor: Kaden Elliss (LB) — Questionable; Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB) — Questionable; Quincy Riley (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Cincinnati Bengals have injury designations to monitor: Colbie Young (WR) — Questionable; Kyle Dugger (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Cincinnati Bengals are Starting QB efficiency; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward New Orleans Saints are Schedule strength; Explosive-play differential.
The current model leans toward CIN at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New Orleans Saints 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Cincinnati Bengals 3-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CINH Starting QB efficiency +1.1 Moderate
Joe Burrow (2026) 71.4% CMP / 7.2 Y/A / 5.8% TD / 1.6% INT / 104.4 RATE · Tyler Shough (2026) 65.1% CMP / 6.1 Y/A / 5.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 90.1 RATE
CINH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CIN home field | CIN 49 days / NO 42 days
CINH Early-down efficiency +0.69 Moderate
45% / 45% allowed | 39% / 51% allowed
CINH Record quality +0.53 Moderate
CIN 3-2 · NO 2-4
NOA Schedule strength +0.49 Very Strong
CIN 37% opp wins · NO 61%
CINH Pass defense +0.45 Moderate
CIN 6.0 net Y/A / 62.5% CMP / 87.0 RATE | NO 6.7 / 66.5% / 97.8
CINH OL vs DL matchup +0.30 Weak
CIN OL sack 4.5% / DEF sack 9.2% | NO 5.2% / 7.0%
CINH Raw scoring differential +0.19 Weak
CIN 25.6 PPG · NO 25.3 PPG | CIN 21.8 PA/G · NO 29.7 PA/G
CINH Special teams efficiency +0.15 Moderate
CIN FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 39.8 | NO 70.0% / 41.2
CINH Game-script tendencies +0.11 Weak
61% neutral pass / 60 plays | 56% / 64
NOA Explosive-play differential +0.10 Weak
5% / 8% allowed | 4% / 7% allowed
CINH Turnover differential +0.09 Weak
CIN 1.2 GIVE / 1.6 TAKE | NO 2.0 / 1.5
NOA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.08 Weak
53% / 41% allowed | 84% / 62% allowed
CINH Run-game matchup +0.03 Weak
CIN 3.6 rush Y/A / 5.0 allowed | NO 3.8 / 4.8 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 83% stuff avoided
NOA Third-down efficiency +0.02 Weak
CIN OFF 50.0% / DEF 46.0% | NO 42.5% / 44.6% | PBP 65%/63%/32% | 77%/42%/29%
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