Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Tennessee Titans face Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12 at EverBank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Tennessee Titans enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 21.5 allowed.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Tennessee Titans’s 14.0 points per game against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing 17.3. In the other direction, Jacksonville Jaguars average 25.7 against Tennessee Titans’s 21.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Tennessee Titans have injury designations to monitor: Kevin Winston Jr. (S) — Questionable; Tony Adams (S) — Questionable; Dorian Mausi (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tennessee Titans are OL vs DL matchup; Recent form.
The current model leans toward JAX at 63.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Tennessee Titans 1-5
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXH Starting QB efficiency +2.0 Very Strong
Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE · Cam Ward (2026) 61.6% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 2.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 75.0 RATE
JAXH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
JAX 4-2 · TEN 1-5
JAXH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
JAX home field | JAX 42 days / TEN 42 days
JAXH Early-down efficiency +0.53 Moderate
47% / 44% allowed | 39% / 42% allowed
JAXH Third-down efficiency +0.48 Strong
JAX OFF 47.9% / DEF 36.2% | TEN 34.8% / 40.0% | PBP 80%/56%/30% | 69%/44%/14%
JAXH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.48 Strong
67% / 40% allowed | 47% / 55% allowed
JAXH Explosive-play differential +0.44 Moderate
7% / 7% allowed | 4% / 5% allowed
JAXH Raw scoring differential +0.41 Moderate
JAX 25.7 PPG · TEN 14.0 PPG | JAX 17.3 PA/G · TEN 21.5 PA/G
TENA OL vs DL matchup +0.31 Weak
JAX OL sack 5.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | TEN 5.3% / 7.8%
TENA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
JAX L1 · TEN W1
JAXH Turnover differential +0.25 Moderate
JAX 0.7 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | TEN 1.3 / 0.8
JAXH Schedule strength +0.23 Moderate
JAX 54% opp wins · TEN 43%
JAXH Run-game matchup +0.22 Weak
JAX 4.1 rush Y/A / 3.2 allowed | TEN 3.8 / 3.8 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 87% stuff avoided
TENA Pass defense +0.15 Weak
JAX 7.4 net Y/A / 66.0% CMP / 87.7 RATE | TEN 6.5 / 69.1% / 92.8
TENA Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
JAX FG 83.3% / NET PUNT 43.3 | TEN 90.0% / 45.6
TENA Game-script tendencies +0.06 Weak
55% neutral pass / 58 plays | 51% / 51
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