Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New York Jets face Miami Dolphins in Week 12 at Hard Rock Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
The scoring matchup puts New York Jets’s 18.7 points per game against a Miami Dolphins defense allowing 26.4. In the other direction, Miami Dolphins average 14.0 against New York Jets’s 20.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Questionable; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Starting QB efficiency; Early-down efficiency.
The current model leans toward NYJ at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NYJA Starting QB efficiency +1.4 Strong
Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE · Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE
NYJA Early-down efficiency +1.0 Strong
33% / 46% allowed | 48% / 44% allowed
MIAH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIA home field | MIA 49 days / NYJ 42 days
NYJA Pass defense +0.84 Strong
MIA 7.4 net Y/A / 76.6% CMP / 115.0 RATE | NYJ 5.3 / 61.5% / 93.1
NYJA Record quality +0.67 Strong
MIA 0-5 · NYJ 2-4
NYJA Game-script tendencies +0.65 Strong
45% neutral pass / 51 plays | 54% / 55
NYJA Recent form +0.60 Strong
MIA L5 · NYJ L1
NYJA OL vs DL matchup +0.52 Moderate
MIA OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 2.7% | NYJ 9.7% / 8.1%
MIAH Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
MIA 82% opp wins · NYJ 57%
MIAH Run-game matchup +0.42 Moderate
MIA 4.9 rush Y/A / 3.7 allowed | NYJ 3.6 / 4.2 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
MIAH Explosive-play differential +0.24 Weak
6% / 5% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
NYJA Raw scoring differential +0.21 Weak
MIA 14.0 PPG · NYJ 18.7 PPG | MIA 26.4 PA/G · NYJ 20.3 PA/G
NYJA Turnover differential +0.20 Moderate
MIA 1.6 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | NYJ 0.7 / 1.3
NYJA Third-down efficiency +0.10 Weak
MIA OFF 41.3% / DEF 51.7% | NYJ 35.1% / 37.7% | PBP 70%/70%/23% | 60%/41%/25%
NYJA Special teams efficiency +0.04 Weak
MIA FG 77.8% / NET PUNT 39.6 | NYJ 92.3% / 42.3
MIAH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.02 Weak
46% / 64% allowed | 31% / 50% allowed
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