Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New England Patriots face Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12 at SoFi Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers enter with a 0-6 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 15.0 points scored and 25.2 allowed. Their current streak is 6 losses.
The scoring matchup puts New England Patriots’s 22.7 points per game against a Los Angeles Chargers defense allowing 25.2. In the other direction, Los Angeles Chargers average 15.0 against New England Patriots’s 18.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Los Angeles Chargers have injury designations to monitor: Joe Alt (OT) — Questionable; Kayode Awosika (G) — Questionable; Tre' Harris (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Los Angeles Chargers are Key injury availability; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The current model leans toward NE at 54.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Los Angeles Chargers 0-6
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
LACH Key injury availability +2.0 Strong
LAC 0 unavailable starters · NE 4
NEA Starting QB efficiency +1.3 Strong
Justin Herbert (2026) 59.4% CMP / 6.3 Y/A / 2.8% TD / 4.4% INT / 68.8 RATE · Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE
NEA Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
LAC 0-6 · NE 4-2
NEA Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
LAC L6 · NE W3
LACH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
LAC home field | LAC 42 days / NE 42 days
NEA OL vs DL matchup +0.48 Moderate
LAC OL sack 10.4% / DEF sack 6.0% | NE 5.5% / 6.8%
NEA Raw scoring differential +0.34 Moderate
LAC 15.0 PPG · NE 22.7 PPG | LAC 25.2 PA/G · NE 18.8 PA/G
NEA Game-script tendencies +0.29 Weak
43% neutral pass / 56 plays | 51% / 61
NEA Explosive-play differential +0.28 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
NEA Pass defense +0.22 Weak
LAC 6.8 net Y/A / 66.7% CMP / 90.7 RATE | NE 6.1 / 66.1% / 90.3
LACH Early-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
40% / 40% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
LACH Schedule strength +0.11 Weak
LAC 64% opp wins · NE 58%
LACH Turnover differential +0.10 Weak
LAC 2.5 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | NE 2.2 / 1.2
NEA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.10 Weak
50% / 48% allowed | 56% / 50% allowed
LACH Third-down efficiency +0.09 Weak
LAC OFF 34.1% / DEF 31.1% | NE 40.5% / 37.1% | PBP 70%/36%/26% | 62%/38%/31%
LACH Run-game matchup +0.07 Weak
LAC 4.2 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | NE 4.2 / 3.9 | PBP 83% stuff avoided | 78% stuff avoided
NEA Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak
LAC FG 81.8% / NET PUNT 43.3 | NE 80.0% / 44.1
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