Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Washington Commanders face Arizona Cardinals in Week 12 at State Farm Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Washington Commanders enter with a 1-4-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.0 points scored and 28.7 allowed.
Arizona Cardinals enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.0 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Washington Commanders’s 22.0 points per game against a Arizona Cardinals defense allowing 29.7. In the other direction, Arizona Cardinals average 21.0 against Washington Commanders’s 28.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Washington Commanders have injury designations to monitor: Javon Kinlaw (DT) — Questionable; Marcus Mariota (QB) — Doubtful; Charles Omenihu (DE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Arizona Cardinals have injury designations to monitor: Andrew Wingard (S) — Questionable; Wydett Williams Jr. (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Arizona Cardinals are Home field / environment; Early-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Washington Commanders are Explosive-play differential; Run-game matchup.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Washington Commanders 1-4-1
- 🏈 Record: Arizona Cardinals 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
ARIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
ARI home field | ARI 42 days / WSH 41 days
ARIH Early-down efficiency +0.82 Moderate
47% / 45% allowed | 41% / 48% allowed
WSHA Explosive-play differential +0.73 Strong
3% / 6% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
WSHA Run-game matchup +0.66 Moderate
ARI 3.7 rush Y/A / 4.4 allowed | WSH 4.6 / 4.0 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
ARIH OL vs DL matchup +0.58 Moderate
ARI OL sack 4.9% / DEF sack 7.5% | WSH 6.5% / 4.8%
WSHA Starting QB efficiency +0.49 Weak
Jacoby Brissett (2026) 66.7% CMP / 5.7 Y/A / 3.8% TD / 2.6% INT / 83.4 RATE · Jayden Daniels (2026) 64.7% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 4.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 97.6 RATE
ARIH Record quality +0.33 Moderate
ARI 2-4 · WSH 1-4
ARIH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
ARI W1 · WSH L1
ARIH Third-down efficiency +0.27 Moderate
ARI OFF 39.3% / DEF 41.8% | WSH 30.9% / 44.4% | PBP 69%/42%/23% | 63%/39%/21%
WSHA Game-script tendencies +0.10 Weak
56% neutral pass / 66 plays | 52% / 61
WSHA Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
ARI 1.0 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | WSH 0.3 / 1.3
WSHA Raw scoring differential +0.07 Weak
ARI 21.0 PPG · WSH 22.0 PPG | ARI 29.7 PA/G · WSH 28.7 PA/G
WSHA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.07 Weak
48% / 76% allowed | 56% / 77% allowed
WSHA Pass defense +0.04 Weak
ARI 7.4 net Y/A / 65.7% CMP / 116.5 RATE | WSH 6.6 / 66.2% / 105.0
WSHA Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak
ARI FG 87.5% / NET PUNT 40.5 | WSH 83.3% / 44.2
WSHA Schedule strength +0.02 Weak
ARI 50% opp wins · WSH 51%
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