NFL Final Intelligence
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals β Recap
October 4, 2026 Β· Paycor Stadium Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off an upset victory on the road, holding off a Cincinnati Bengals team that accumulated significant yardage but committed critical turnovers. Jacksonville methodically established a lead in the second quarter and extended it in the fourth, thwarting a late Bengals comeback attempt to secure the win.
Opening the scoring in the first quarter, Cam Little connected on a 55-yard field goal for the Jaguars. Cincinnati responded early in the second, as Evan McPherson tied the game with a 29-yard field goal. Jacksonville then seized momentum, with Little adding a 28-yard field goal, followed by Trevor Lawrence's 7-yard touchdown pass to Brian Thomas Jr., giving the Jaguars a 13-3 advantage heading into halftime. In the third quarter, Joe Burrow found Mike Gesicki for a 15-yard touchdown, cutting the deficit to three, but Little answered with a 54-yard field goal to restore a six-point lead for Jacksonville.
The pivotal stretch of the game unfolded across the second quarter, highlighted by Jacksonville's decisive scoring. After a brief tie early in the second, the Jaguars rattled off 10 unanswered points, including Brian Thomas Jr.'s touchdown reception, to create a significant halftime cushion. Although Burrow amassed 428 passing yards, he also threw two interceptions, which proved costly for the Bengals' offense. Jacksonville capitalized further in the final quarter when Chris Rodriguez Jr. extended the lead to 22-10 with a 25-yard rushing touchdown. This sequence of scores allowed the Jaguars to keep the Bengals at arm's length, despite a late rushing touchdown from Burrow himself.
Ultimately, the Jaguars prevailed by converting their opportunities and limiting the Bengals' potent offense in crucial moments, turning Joe Burrow's impressive yardage total into insufficient points. The Jacksonville Jaguars now stand at 3-1, while the Cincinnati Bengals fall to 2-2.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Cincinnati Bengals (-135, 55% implied) over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Final: the Jacksonville Jaguars won 22β17, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Cincinnati Bengals (58% confidence). Final: the Jacksonville Jaguars won 22β17, missing the call.
Standouts
Full box score, defensive stats, and every player's line are available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.
Biggest Quarter
The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter β the biggest single quarter of the game.
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