NHL Final Intelligence
Ottawa Senators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4 — Recap
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Game Recap
The Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Ottawa Senators 4-1, with the game remaining scoreless through the first period before Vegas broke the tie late in the second. Ottawa briefly leveled the score early in the third, but the Golden Knights responded with three unanswered goals to secure the victory. SportsFBI's pregame model had leaned toward a Vegas win, assigning them a 61% probability.
Braeden Bowman put the Golden Knights on the scoreboard at 19:49 of the second period, with assists from Ivan Barbashev and Shea Theodore. The Senators answered quickly in the third period when Shane Pinto, assisted by Drake Batherson, tied the game at 00:34. Vegas regained the lead at 8:01 of the final frame, with Raphael Lavoie scoring, assisted by Nic Dowd and Ville Heinola.
William Karlsson extended Vegas's lead to 3-1 at 18:00, with Trevor Connelly and Mitch Marner earning assists on the play. Jack Eichel then sealed the victory with an unassisted goal at 19:51 of the third period. The Golden Knights outshot the Senators 29-26. Adin Hill made 24 saves on 25 shots for Vegas, while Jonas Johansson stopped 25 of 27 shots for Ottawa. Following the game, Vegas's record improved to 8-4-1, and Ottawa's fell to 8-4-0.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Vegas Golden Knights (-170, 63% implied) over the Ottawa Senators.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Vegas Golden Knights (61% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 3 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P2 19:49 Braeden Bowman (Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore) VGK · Power play · wrist shot · OTT 0, VGK 1
- P3 0:34 Shane Pinto (Drake Batherson) OTT · Power play · snap shot · OTT 1, VGK 1
- P3 8:01 Raphael Lavoie (Nic Dowd, Ville Heinola) VGK · wrist shot · OTT 1, VGK 2
- P3 18:00 William Karlsson (Trevor Connelly, Mitch Marner) VGK · Empty net · wrist shot · OTT 1, VGK 3
- P3 19:53 Jack Eichel (Mark Stone) VGK · Empty net · backhand shot · OTT 1, VGK 4
Biggest Period
The Vegas Golden Knights scored 3 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 11 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| VGK | 4 | 15 | 10 | 29 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 1Goals2% of attempts
- 25Saved61% of attempts
- 15Missed the net37% of attempts
- 4Goals8% of attempts
- 25Saved50% of attempts
- 21Missed the net42% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:06 |
| Drake Batherson | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:25 |
| Jake Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:38 |
| Tim Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:47 |
| Tyler Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:25 |
| Jordan Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20:04 |
| Artem Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 |
| Claude Giroux | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 |
| Dylan Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:30 |
| Ridly Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:52 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 15:07 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15:07 |
| Michael Amadio | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:01 |
| Stephen Halliday | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:56 |
| Nikolas Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12:43 |
| Warren Foegele | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:36 |
| Andre Burakovsky | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 09:24 |
| Nick Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 07:10 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson | L | 25 | 27 | 92.6 | 2 | 58:07 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 |
| William Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20:07 |
| Braeden Bowman | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 |
| Raphael Lavoie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 08:20 |
| Mitch Marner | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:40 |
| Shea Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 |
| Mark Stone | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20:08 |
| Ivan Barbashev | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18:40 |
| Trevor Connelly | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 |
| Ville Heinola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:31 |
| Nic Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 09:06 |
| Noah Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:18 |
| Brayden McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21:05 |
| Rasmus Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18:32 |
| Jeremy Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:40 |
| Brett Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14:09 |
| Tomas Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:56 |
| Marc Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 09:24 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill | W | 25 | 26 | 96.2 | 1 | 60:00 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore VGK | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| William Karlsson VGK | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Ivan Barbashev VGK | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | Points | 1.5 | 1 | Under |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Mitch Marner VGK | Points | 1.5 | 1 | Under |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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