NHL Final Intelligence
Winnipeg Jets 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT) — Recap
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Game Recap
The Winnipeg Jets staged a remarkable comeback, erasing a four-goal deficit to defeat the Montréal Canadiens 5-4 in overtime. Montréal had entered the game with a 9-3-2 record, and the SportsFBI model had leaned towards a Canadiens victory at 72%. However, Winnipeg, now 4-8-3, found a way to turn the game around in the final period.
Montréal built a commanding lead throughout the first two periods, capitalizing on limited opportunities. Owen Beck opened the scoring at 3:05 of the first period, assisted by Florian Xhekaj and Arber Xhekaj. Josh Anderson extended the Canadiens' lead to 2-0 at 18:18, with assists from Chris Kreider and Kaiden Guhle. Cole Caufield added to the lead early in the second, making it 3-0 at 4:00 with help from Noah Dobson and Juraj Slafkovský. Despite the Jets outshooting the Canadiens significantly, Jacob Fowler kept Montréal in control, making 42 saves on 46 shots through the game. Stuart Skinner of Winnipeg made 17 saves on 21 shots.
Caufield scored his second goal of the game just 46 seconds into the third period, assisted by Lane Hutson and Juraj Slafkovský, putting Montréal up 4-0. The Jets then mounted a furious rally. Tyrel Bauer started the comeback at 17:21 of the third, assisted by Cole Koepke and Dylan DeMelo. Morgan Barron followed quickly at 18:03, with Bauer and DeMelo assisting, cutting the deficit to 4-2. Kyle Connor then scored at 19:00, assisted by Mark Scheifele, making it a one-goal game. Just 27 seconds later, at 19:27, Connor scored again, assisted by Scheifele and Barron, to tie the game 4-4 and force overtime.
Winnipeg’s persistent offensive pressure, which saw them outshoot Montréal 47-22, ultimately paid off in the extra frame. The Jets secured a dramatic 5-4 overtime victory, completing their comeback after trailing by four goals in the third period.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Montréal Canadiens (-175, 64% implied) over the Winnipeg Jets. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Montréal Canadiens (72% confidence). It gave a 35% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 3:05 Owen Beck (Florian Xhekaj, Arber Xhekaj) MTL · snap shot · WPG 0, MTL 1
- P1 18:18 Josh Anderson (Chris Kreider, Kaiden Guhle) MTL · backhand shot · WPG 0, MTL 2
- P2 4:00 Cole Caufield (Noah Dobson, Juraj Slafkovský) MTL · Power play · slap shot · WPG 0, MTL 3
- P3 0:46 Cole Caufield (Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský) MTL · Power play · snap shot · WPG 0, MTL 4
- P3 17:21 Tyrel Bauer (Cole Koepke, Dylan DeMelo) WPG · snap shot · WPG 1, MTL 4
- P3 18:03 Morgan Barron (Tyrel Bauer, Dylan DeMelo) WPG · snap shot · WPG 2, MTL 4
- P3 19:00 Kyle Connor (Mark Scheifele) WPG · Power play · slap shot · WPG 3, MTL 4
- P3 19:27 Kyle Connor (Mark Scheifele, Morgan Barron) WPG · Power play · snap shot · WPG 4, MTL 4
- OT 3:30 Dylan Samberg (Adam Lowry, Gabriel Vilardi) WPG · snap shot · WPG 5, MTL 4
Biggest Period
The Winnipeg Jets scored 4 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 11 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 47 |
| MTL | 7 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 22 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 5Goals8% of attempts
- 42Saved67% of attempts
- 16Missed the net25% of attempts
- 4Goals11% of attempts
- 18Saved47% of attempts
- 16Missed the net42% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | L | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27:50 |
| Morgan Barron | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15:25 |
| Tyrel Bauer | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10:44 |
| Mark Scheifele | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 28:09 |
| Dylan DeMelo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:38 |
| Dylan Samberg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 |
| Gabriel Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 25:14 |
| Adam Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Cole Koepke | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 06:53 |
| Neal Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23:32 |
| Cole Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21:03 |
| Dawson Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 |
| Mario Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19:13 |
| Elias Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 |
| Alex Iafallo | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:06 |
| Viggo Björck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:11 |
| Haydn Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 07:36 |
| Nino Niederreiter | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 06:25 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | W | 18 | 22 | 81.8 | 4 | 62:18 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | R | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | L | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:30 |
| Josh Anderson | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:45 |
| Owen Beck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 09:27 |
| Kaiden Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 25:18 |
| Lane Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:14 |
| Noah Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20:13 |
| Chris Kreider | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:32 |
| Arber Xhekaj | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:05 |
| Florian Xhekaj | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 08:54 |
| Alexandre Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 23:35 |
| Alex Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 |
| Jake Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 |
| Phillip Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18:29 |
| Alexandre Texier | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14:35 |
| Adam Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14:23 |
| Zachary Bolduc | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 |
| Oliver Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler | O | 42 | 47 | 89.4 | 5 | 63:30 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský MTL | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 8 | Over | |
| Mark Scheifele WPG | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Cole Caufield MTL | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Chris Kreider MTL | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
⚔️ Season Series & What's Next
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