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MLB Matchup Intelligence

BOS vs
NYM

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

July 12, 2026 ยท 1:40 PM ET ยท Citi Field
BOS 87-75  ยท  NYM 74-88

๐Ÿ Final: BOS 3, NYM 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Boston Red Sox
Confidence 68%
Projected Score BOS 4 ยท NYM 2
Blowout Probability 12%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYM Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Key injuries NYM (Jared Young, Christian Scott) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS SP quality edge (FIP 3.81 vs 4.41) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM BOS SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 5.3) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS K edge vs NYM lineup (10.4 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Recent run diff (+3.9 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS NYM SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Line move (33pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

BOS โ€” Away LHP
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
ERA3.03
WHIP1.10
FIP2.92
K/910.4
K/BB8.0
Road ERA: 2.55
vs
NYM โ€” Home LHP
Zac Thornton
ERA3.42
WHIP1.14
FIP4.41
K/96.7
K/BB4.8
Home ERA: 3.76

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

BOS โ€” Away
  1. 1 Anthony Seigler 2B
  2. 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Romy Gonzalez 1B
  5. 5 Caleb Durbin 3B
  6. 6 Andruw Monasterio SS
  7. 7 Jarren Duran DH
  8. 8 Nate Eaton LF
  9. 9 Connor Wong C
NYM โ€” Home
  1. 1 A.J. Ewing CF
  2. 2 Juan Soto DH
  3. 3 Francisco Lindor SS
  4. 4 Eric Wagaman 1B
  5. 5 Carson Benge RF
  6. 6 Tyrone Taylor LF
  7. 7 Luis Torrens C
  8. 8 Brett Baty 3B
  9. 9 Zack Short 2B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

BOS Away NYM Home
Team OPS 0.672 0.705
Bullpen FIP 3.55 4.39
Run Diff / 10G +1.8 -2.1
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -3 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
BOS -1.5 (+1060)
NYM +1.5 (-4600)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (+354)
Under 5.5 (-539)
Moneyline
BOS -850
NYM +489

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

BOS โ€” Away
Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela CF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
78 ยท UNDER
Caleb Durbin Caleb Durbin 3B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
77 ยท UNDER
Wilyer Abreu Wilyer Abreu RF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
72 ยท UNDER
Connor Wong Connor Wong C
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
69 ยท UNDER
NYM โ€” Home
Carson Benge Carson Benge RF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
71 ยท OVER
Brett Baty Brett Baty 3B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
68 ยท OVER
Tyrone Taylor Tyrone Taylor LF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
2.5
68 ยท UNDER
A.J. Ewing A.J. Ewing CF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
1.5
68 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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