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MLB Matchup Intelligence

SEA vs
TB

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

July 12, 2026 ยท 1:40 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
SEA 76-86  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: SEA 8, TB 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Seattle Mariners
Confidence 52%
Projected Score SEA 6 ยท TB 5
Blowout Probability 3%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 6.9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Catcher arm edge (CS% 16pp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB K edge vs SEA lineup (10.8 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA TB SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

SEA โ€” Away RHP
Emerson Hancock
Emerson Hancock
ERA3.57
WHIP1.14
FIP3.85
K/98.2
K/BB6.1
Road ERA: 4.03
vs
TB โ€” Home LHP
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour
ERA4.21
WHIP1.13
FIP3.99
K/910.8
K/BB8.3
Home ERA: 5.33

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

SEA โ€” Away
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Randy Arozarena LF
  3. 3 Cal Raleigh DH
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Mitch Garver C
  6. 6 Cole Young 2B
  7. 7 Victor Robles CF
  8. 8 Weston Wilson RF
  9. 9 Buddy Kennedy 3B
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Yandy Diaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Cedric Mullins CF
  5. 5 Chandler Simpson LF
  6. 6 Victor Mesa Jr. RF
  7. 7 Taylor Walls SS
  8. 8 Richie Palacios 2B
  9. 9 Hunter Feduccia C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

SEA Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.639 0.729
Bullpen FIP 4.56 4.55
Run Diff / 10G +0.2 +0.4
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 2 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
SEA -4.5 (-108)
TB +4.5 (-120)
Total (O/U)
Over 10.5 (-111)
Under 10.5 (-117)
Moneyline
SEA -5800
TB +1120

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

SEA โ€” Away
Randy Arozarena Randy Arozarena LF
Hits + Runs + RBIs
3.5
73 ยท UNDER
J.P. Crawford J.P. Crawford SS
Hits + Runs + RBIs
3.5
57 ยท UNDER
Cal Raleigh Cal Raleigh DH
Hits + Runs + RBIs
3.5
56 ยท UNDER
TB โ€” Home
Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson LF
Singles
0.5
77 ยท OVER
Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 3B
Hits + Runs + RBIs
3.5
62 ยท UNDER
Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz DH
Singles
0.5
62 ยท OVER
Richie Palacios Richie Palacios 2B
RBIs
0.5
59 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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