โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

TB vs
BOS

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

May 10, 2026 ยท 1:35 PM ET ยท Fenway Park
TB 98-64  ยท  BOS 87-75

๐Ÿ Final: TB 4, BOS 1 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 72%
Projected Score TB 4 ยท BOS 2
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

BOS Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 3.15 vs 3.94, PF 1.07) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB BOS SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS TB SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+2.0 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB BOS SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

TB โ€” Away RHP
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.67
WHIP0.91
FIP2.69
K/99.1
K/BB7.4
Road ERA: 2.50
vs
BOS โ€” Home LHP
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
ERA3.03
WHIP1.10
FIP2.92
K/910.4
K/BB8.0
Home ERA: 3.61

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

TB โ€” Away
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Ben Williamson 2B
  4. 4 Yandy Diaz DH
  5. 5 Ryan Vilade 1B
  6. 6 Cedric Mullins CF
  7. 7 Jonny DeLuca RF
  8. 8 Nick Fortes C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS
BOS โ€” Home
  1. 1 Jarren Duran LF
  2. 2 Willson Contreras 1B
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Masataka Yoshida DH
  5. 5 Trevor Story SS
  6. 6 Mickey Gasper C
  7. 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
  8. 8 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  9. 9 Caleb Durbin 3B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

TB Away BOS Home
Team OPS 0.710 0.726
Bullpen FIP 4.55 3.55
Run Diff / 10G +1.7 -0.3
Days Rest 1 1
Streak -1 -3

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
TB -2.5 (-165)
BOS +2.5 (+126)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (+122)
Under 5.5 (-159)
Moneyline
TB -1800
BOS +760

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

TB โ€” Away
Nick Martinez Nick Martinez SP
Outs
16.5
55 ยท OVER
BOS โ€” Home
Payton Tolle Payton Tolle SP
Pitcher Ks
5.5
58 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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