NBA Final Intelligence

TOR 4-3
109 – 128
FINAL
DEN 3-3

Toronto Raptors 109, Denver Nuggets 128 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The Denver Nuggets defeated the Toronto Raptors 128-109, validating SportsFBI's pregame lean of 63% for Denver. Nikola Jokic led all scorers with a triple-double of 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists on 13-of-19 shooting, while Bryce Hopkins added 18 points and Aaron Gordon contributed 17 points for the Nuggets. RJ Barrett paced the Toronto Raptors with 22 points, and Scottie Barnes finished with 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists.

The Toronto Raptors established an early offensive rhythm, taking a 35-33 lead after the first quarter. Toronto maintained its narrow advantage through the second period, outscoring Denver 32-31 to carry a 67-64 lead into halftime behind Barrett's shooting.

The game swung decisively in the third quarter as the Denver Nuggets erupted for 41 points while clamping down defensively to hold the Toronto Raptors to just 15 points. That 41-15 frame completely inverted the contest, giving Denver a comfortable cushion entering the final period.

Despite a 27-23 fourth-quarter edge by the Toronto Raptors, the third-quarter deficit proved insurmountable. Gordon shot 7-of-9 for his 17 points and Hopkins shot 6-of-7 for 18 points to secure the 128-109 victory for the Denver Nuggets.

#DenverNuggets #TorontoRaptors #NikolaJokic #NBA

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Denver Nuggets (63% confidence). It gave a 13% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 19 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · DEN -4.5 DEN covered Won by 19
Total · 231.5 Over 237 combined
Moneyline TOR +158 · DEN -188 DEN favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (DEN) -4.5-4.5 No move
Total 231.5231.5 No move
Moneyline (DEN) -186-188 -2

Standouts

Top Scorer · DEN
32 PTS, 10 REB, 11 AST · 13-19 FG
Scoring · TOR
22 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST, 3 3PM · 7-17 FG
Scoring · DEN
18 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST, 1 3PM · 6-7 FG
Season highs
Tyus Jones · Season-high 8 assistsCameron Johnson · Season-high 4 threes

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

TOR 10 largest lead Q2 4:38 (TOR 59, DEN 49) · 9-0 run, Q2 6:15–Q2 4:38
DEN 27 largest lead Q4 10:03 (TOR 82, DEN 109) · 10-0 run, Q3 10:49–Q3 9:25
Swings 2 lead changes Tied 4 times

Ahead for good: Aaron Gordon makes layup (Nikola Jokic assists) (Q3 10:29, TOR 69, DEN 70).

Linescore

1234 T
TOR 35321527 109
DEN 33314123 128

🧮 How They Scored

TORDEN
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
55.3%Effective FG%67.3%
13.7%Turnover %14.3%
27.5%Offensive rebound %28.0%
0.259Free-throw rate0.346

Box Score

Toronto Raptors

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
RJ Barrett F-G 3322530007-173-75-8-15
Immanuel Quickley G 3213172015-122-81-1-29
Scottie Barnes G-F 3217663057-151-22-4-23
Ja'Kobe Walter G 278120023-81-61-2-9
Collin Murray-Boyles F 2313320026-101-20-0-4
Jamal Shead G 203361031-31-20-0-17
Jamison Battle F 199100003-52-41-1-14
Jakob Poeltl C 198510004-50-00-0-11
Allen Graves F 145210002-51-30-0+5
Alijah Martin G 96100122-30-02-2+1
Kyle Anderson F 42010001-20-00-0+7
Jaden Bradley G 42101000-00-02-2+7
Trayce Jackson-Davis F 41003000-00-01-2+7

Denver Nuggets

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Nikola Jokic C 3032101130213-190-16-7+25
Cameron Johnson F 3012221014-104-80-0+20
Jamal Murray G 2814571034-112-54-4+16
Christian Braun G 2811331014-51-12-2+22
Bryce Hopkins F 2818412026-71-15-8+11
Aaron Gordon F 2517102117-91-22-2+9
Trevon Brazile F 236711003-60-20-0+15
Tyus Jones G 186180013-40-10-0+4
Marvin Bagley III F 1410220014-50-12-2+1
Ryan Nembhard G 40000010-10-00-0-7
Zeke Nnaji F-C 42000000-00-02-2-7
DaRon Holmes II F 40100010-00-00-0-7
Alpha Diallo G 40000010-10-10-0-7

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series TOR 0 – 1 DEN
Last 13 meetings · since 2020-21 TOR 3 – 10 DEN
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Toronto Raptors 4-4 L1 L10 4-4 Next game: @ MIL · Fri, Nov 6
Denver Nuggets 4-3 W1 L10 4-3 Next game: @ IND · Sat, Nov 7

🔍 Key Suspects Results

4 of 7 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

TOR — Away
Immanuel Quickley Immanuel Quickley G Threes 2.5 OVER MISS Actual 2
Collin Murray-Boyles Collin Murray-Boyles F Rebounds 5.5 UNDER HIT Actual 3
Jamal Shead Jamal Shead G Assists 4.5 OVER HIT Actual 6
Ja'Kobe Walter G Rebounds 3.5 OVER MISS Actual 1
Scottie Barnes Scottie Barnes G-F Points 20 MISS Actual 17
DEN — Home
Cameron Johnson Cameron Johnson F Pts+Reb+Ast 18.5 UNDER HIT Actual 16
DeMar DeRozan DeMar DeRozan G Assists 2.5 OVER VOID
Trevon Brazile F Points 5.5 OVER HIT Actual 6

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