Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Arizona Cardinals face New Orleans Saints in Week 16 at Caesars Superdome. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Arizona Cardinals enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.0 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
New Orleans Saints enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.3 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Arizona Cardinals’s 21.0 points per game against a New Orleans Saints defense allowing 29.7. In the other direction, New Orleans Saints average 25.3 against Arizona Cardinals’s 29.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Arizona Cardinals have injury designations to monitor: Andrew Wingard (S) — Questionable; Wydett Williams Jr. (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New Orleans Saints have injury designations to monitor: Kaden Elliss (LB) — Questionable; Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB) — Questionable; Quincy Riley (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New Orleans Saints are Home field / environment; Red-zone TD efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Arizona Cardinals are Early-down efficiency; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward NO at 54.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Arizona Cardinals 2-4
- 🏈 Record: New Orleans Saints 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NOH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NO home field | NO 70 days / ARI 70 days
ARIA Early-down efficiency +0.87 Strong
39% / 51% allowed | 47% / 45% allowed
NOH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.68 Very Strong
84% / 62% allowed | 48% / 76% allowed
NOH Schedule strength +0.22 Moderate
NO 61% opp wins · ARI 50%
NOH Starting QB efficiency +0.22 Weak
Tyler Shough (2026) 65.1% CMP / 6.1 Y/A / 5.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 90.1 RATE · Jacoby Brissett (2026) 66.7% CMP / 5.7 Y/A / 3.8% TD / 2.6% INT / 83.4 RATE
NOH Pass defense +0.17 Weak
NO 6.7 net Y/A / 66.5% CMP / 97.8 RATE | ARI 7.4 / 65.7% / 116.5
NOH Raw scoring differential +0.17 Weak
NO 25.3 PPG · ARI 21.0 PPG | NO 29.7 PA/G · ARI 29.7 PA/G
NOH Explosive-play differential +0.16 Weak
4% / 7% allowed | 3% / 6% allowed
NOH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
56% neutral pass / 64 plays | 56% / 66
ARIA OL vs DL matchup +0.15 Weak
NO OL sack 5.2% / DEF sack 7.0% | ARI 4.9% / 7.5%
NOH Run-game matchup +0.15 Weak
NO 3.8 rush Y/A / 4.8 allowed | ARI 3.7 / 4.4 | PBP 83% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
ARIA Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
NO FG 70.0% / NET PUNT 41.2 | ARI 87.5% / 40.5
ARIA Turnover differential +0.10 Weak
NO 2.0 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | ARI 1.0 / 1.3
ARIA Third-down efficiency +0.05 Weak
77%/42%/29% | 69%/42%/23%
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