Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New England Patriots face New York Jets in Week 16 at MetLife Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts New England Patriots’s 22.7 points per game against a New York Jets defense allowing 20.3. In the other direction, New York Jets average 18.7 against New England Patriots’s 18.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Doubtful; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Key injury availability; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Record quality; Recent form.
The current model leans toward NYJ at 57.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NYJH Key injury availability +2.0 Strong
NYJ 0 unavailable starters · NE 4
NYJH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NYJ home field | NYJ 70 days / NE 70 days
NEA Record quality +0.67 Strong
NYJ 2-4 · NE 4-2
NYJH Early-down efficiency +0.63 Moderate
48% / 44% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
NEA Recent form +0.60 Strong
NYJ L1 · NE W3
NYJH Game-script tendencies +0.58 Strong
54% neutral pass / 55 plays | 51% / 61
NYJH Starting QB efficiency +0.44 Weak
Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE · Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE
NYJH Pass defense +0.40 Weak
NYJ 5.3 net Y/A / 61.5% CMP / 93.1 RATE | NE 6.1 / 66.1% / 90.3
NEA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.36 Moderate
31% / 50% allowed | 56% / 50% allowed
NEA Explosive-play differential +0.32 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
NYJH Turnover differential +0.24 Moderate
NYJ 0.7 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | NE 2.2 / 1.2
NEA Run-game matchup +0.22 Weak
NYJ 3.6 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | NE 4.2 / 3.9 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 78% stuff avoided
NEA Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
NYJ 18.7 PPG · NE 22.7 PPG | NYJ 20.3 PA/G · NE 18.8 PA/G
NEA OL vs DL matchup +0.12 Weak
NYJ OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 8.1% | NE 5.5% / 6.8%
NEA Schedule strength +0.02 Weak
NYJ 57% opp wins · NE 58%
NEA Third-down efficiency +0.02 Weak
NYJ OFF 35.1% / DEF 37.7% | NE 40.5% / 37.1% | PBP 60%/41%/25% | 62%/38%/31%
NYJH Special teams efficiency +0.02 Weak
NYJ FG 92.3% / NET PUNT 42.3 | NE 80.0% / 44.1
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