Baker Mayfield
Michael Penix Jr.
NFL · MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
December 27, 2026 · 12:00 AM ET
Buccaneers vs Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TB 1-5 · ATL 2-4
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers face Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
Atlanta Falcons enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 23.7 points scored and 25.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 19.8 points per game against a Atlanta Falcons defense allowing 25.5. In the other direction, Atlanta Falcons average 23.7 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 23.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Atlanta Falcons have injury designations to monitor: Kendal Daniels (LB) — Questionable; Divine Deablo (LB) — Questionable; C.J. Henderson (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Atlanta Falcons are Home field / environment; Starting QB efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Recent form; Third-down efficiency.
The current model leans toward ATL at 57.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
- 🏈 Record: Atlanta Falcons 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
ATLH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
ATL home field | ATL 70 days / TB 70 days
ATLH Starting QB efficiency +0.76 Moderate
Michael Penix Jr. (2026) 64.5% CMP / 8.6 Y/A / 5.5% TD / 0.9% INT / 106.0 RATE · Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE
ATLH Early-down efficiency +0.63 Moderate
46% / 41% allowed | 39% / 41% allowed
ATLH Explosive-play differential +0.48 Moderate
8% / 5% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
ATLH Record quality +0.33 Moderate
ATL 2-4 · TB 1-5
ATLH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.27 Moderate
75% / 64% allowed | 47% / 53% allowed
ATLH OL vs DL matchup +0.19 Weak
ATL OL sack 8.7% / DEF sack 5.7% | TB 10.2% / 4.9%
TBA Recent form +0.15 Weak
ATL L2 · TB L1
TBA Third-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
ATL OFF 38.9% / DEF 42.7% | TB 36.8% / 33.8% | PBP 80%/33%/35% | 70%/56%/22%
TBA Special teams efficiency +0.13 Weak
ATL FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 45.8 | TB 100.0% / 38.7
TBA Turnover differential +0.12 Weak
ATL 2.0 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | TB 1.8 / 1.3
TBA Schedule strength +0.11 Weak
ATL 60% opp wins · TB 66%
ATLH Game-script tendencies +0.06 Weak
46% neutral pass / 56 plays | 52% / 58
TBA Run-game matchup +0.04 Weak
ATL 5.1 rush Y/A / 3.6 allowed | TB 4.8 / 3.4 | PBP 85% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
ATLH Raw scoring differential +0.04 Weak
ATL 23.7 PPG · TB 19.8 PPG | ATL 25.5 PA/G · TB 23.0 PA/G
ATLH Pass defense +0.03 Weak
ATL 5.8 net Y/A / 64.6% CMP / 95.1 RATE | TB 5.9 / 66.5% / 87.5
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, December 27, 2026
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