Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
San Francisco 49ers face Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 at Arrowhead Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
San Francisco 49ers enter with a 6-0 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 29.5 points scored and 18.3 allowed. Their current streak is 6 wins.
Kansas City Chiefs enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.0 points scored and 16.6 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts San Francisco 49ers’s 29.5 points per game against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing 16.6. In the other direction, Kansas City Chiefs average 28.0 against San Francisco 49ers’s 18.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
San Francisco 49ers have injury designations to monitor: Nick Bosa (DE) — Questionable; Mike Evans (WR) — Questionable; Marques Sigle (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Kansas City Chiefs have injury designations to monitor: Rashee Rice (WR) — Questionable; Josh Simmons (OT) — Questionable; Cooper McDonald (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Kansas City Chiefs are Home field / environment; Key injury availability.
The strongest model adjustments toward San Francisco 49ers are Starting QB efficiency; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward KC at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: San Francisco 49ers 6-0
- 🏈 Record: Kansas City Chiefs 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
KCH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
KC home field | KC 70 days / SF 69 days
KCH Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
KC 0 unavailable starters · SF 1
SFA Starting QB efficiency +0.40 Weak
Patrick Mahomes (2026) 66.5% CMP / 8.3 Y/A / 5.7% TD / 1.9% INT / 103.1 RATE · Brock Purdy (2026) 69.6% CMP / 8.5 Y/A / 8.2% TD / 1.2% INT / 118.1 RATE
SFA OL vs DL matchup +0.26 Weak
KC OL sack 3.7% / DEF sack 4.2% | SF 2.8% / 6.6%
KCH Run-game matchup +0.18 Weak
KC 5.5 rush Y/A / 3.5 allowed | SF 4.6 / 3.6 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
SFA Recent form +0.15 Weak
KC W5 · SF W6
KCH Turnover differential +0.13 Weak
KC 0.8 GIVE / 1.8 TAKE | SF 1.0 / 1.2
SFA Schedule strength +0.09 Weak
KC 30% opp wins · SF 35%
KCH Pass defense +0.09 Weak
KC 5.7 net Y/A / 60.9% CMP / 74.1 RATE | SF 5.5 / 65.9% / 88.4
KCH Special teams efficiency +0.08 Weak
KC FG 76.9% / NET PUNT 49.5 | SF 66.7% / 45.5
KCH Early-down efficiency +0.08 Weak
49% / 38% allowed | 52% / 41% allowed
SFA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.08 Weak
57% / 42% allowed | 90% / 50% allowed
SFA Third-down efficiency +0.07 Weak
KC OFF 41.7% / DEF 35.7% | SF 51.5% / 38.6% | PBP 61%/33%/31% | 64%/45%/40%
KCH Explosive-play differential +0.07 Weak
8% / 5% allowed | 6% / 4% allowed
KCH Game-script tendencies +0.03 Weak
57% neutral pass / 60 plays | 56% / 57
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