Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Washington Commanders face Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Washington Commanders enter with a 1-4-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.0 points scored and 28.7 allowed.
Minnesota Vikings enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.8 points scored and 12.8 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Washington Commanders’s 22.0 points per game against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing 12.8. In the other direction, Minnesota Vikings average 21.8 against Washington Commanders’s 28.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Washington Commanders have injury designations to monitor: Javon Kinlaw (DT) — Questionable; Marcus Mariota (QB) — Doubtful; Charles Omenihu (DE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Minnesota Vikings have injury designations to monitor: Jordan Addison (WR) — Questionable; Christian Darrisaw (OT) — Questionable; T.J. Hockenson (TE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Minnesota Vikings are Record quality; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Washington Commanders are Game-script tendencies; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward MIN at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Washington Commanders 1-4-1
- 🏈 Record: Minnesota Vikings 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MINH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
MIN 5-0 · WSH 1-4
MINH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIN home field | MIN 77 days / WSH 68 days
MINH Pass defense +0.94 Strong
MIN 5.0 net Y/A / 53.2% CMP / 62.9 RATE | WSH 6.6 / 66.2% / 105.0
MINH Recent form +0.90 Very Strong
MIN W5 · WSH L1
WSHA Game-script tendencies +0.62 Strong
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 52% / 61
MINH Early-down efficiency +0.56 Moderate
33% / 34% allowed | 41% / 48% allowed
MINH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.52 Strong
50% / 25% allowed | 56% / 77% allowed
MINH Third-down efficiency +0.47 Strong
MIN OFF 38.0% / DEF 22.2% | WSH 30.9% / 44.4% | PBP 80%/48%/21% | 63%/39%/21%
WSHA Run-game matchup +0.44 Moderate
MIN 3.8 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | WSH 4.6 / 4.0 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
WSHA Starting QB efficiency +0.44 Weak
Kyler Murray (2026) 68.3% CMP / 6.6 Y/A / 2.0% TD / 2.0% INT / 84.7 RATE · Jayden Daniels (2026) 64.7% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 4.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 97.6 RATE
MINH OL vs DL matchup +0.30 Weak
MIN OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 9.8% | WSH 6.5% / 4.8%
WSHA Schedule strength +0.29 Strong
MIN 37% opp wins · WSH 51%
MINH Raw scoring differential +0.27 Moderate
MIN 21.8 PPG · WSH 22.0 PPG | MIN 12.8 PA/G · WSH 28.7 PA/G
WSHA Explosive-play differential +0.20 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
MINH Special teams efficiency +0.08 Weak
MIN FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 41.0 | WSH 83.3% / 44.2
MINH Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
MIN 0.8 GIVE / 2.0 TAKE | WSH 0.3 / 1.3
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