Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars face Dallas Cowboys in Week 16 at AT&T Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
Dallas Cowboys enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.2 points scored and 26.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Jacksonville Jaguars’s 25.7 points per game against a Dallas Cowboys defense allowing 26.5. In the other direction, Dallas Cowboys average 25.2 against Jacksonville Jaguars’s 17.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Dallas Cowboys have injury designations to monitor: DeMarvion Overshown (LB) — Questionable; KaVontae Turpin (WR) — Questionable; Dee Winters (LB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Dallas Cowboys are Home field / environment; Game-script tendencies.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward JAX at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Dallas Cowboys 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXA Starting QB efficiency +1.1 Moderate
Dak Prescott (2026) 66.3% CMP / 6.7 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 2.0% INT / 90.1 RATE · Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE
DALH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DAL home field | DAL 70 days / JAX 70 days
JAXA Run-game matchup +0.76 Strong
DAL 3.7 rush Y/A / 4.7 allowed | JAX 4.1 / 3.2 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
JAXA Explosive-play differential +0.69 Strong
5% / 8% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
JAXA Record quality +0.67 Strong
DAL 2-4 · JAX 4-2
DALH Game-script tendencies +0.42 Moderate
62% neutral pass / 60 plays | 55% / 58
JAXA Third-down efficiency +0.38 Moderate
DAL OFF 47.2% / DEF 54.7% | JAX 47.9% / 36.2% | PBP 80%/44%/30% | 80%/56%/30%
JAXA Pass defense +0.35 Weak
DAL 7.4 net Y/A / 68.5% CMP / 110.2 RATE | JAX 7.4 / 66.0% / 87.7
JAXA Raw scoring differential +0.30 Moderate
DAL 25.2 PPG · JAX 25.7 PPG | DAL 26.5 PA/G · JAX 17.3 PA/G
JAXA Turnover differential +0.24 Moderate
DAL 1.2 GIVE / 0.5 TAKE | JAX 0.7 / 1.5
JAXA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.24 Moderate
77% / 71% allowed | 67% / 40% allowed
JAXA Schedule strength +0.20 Moderate
DAL 44% opp wins · JAX 54%
JAXA Recent form +0.15 Weak
DAL L2 · JAX L1
DALH OL vs DL matchup +0.08 Weak
DAL OL sack 2.8% / DEF sack 4.2% | JAX 5.2% / 4.9%
JAXA Special teams efficiency +0.05 Weak
DAL FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | JAX 83.3% / 43.3
JAXA Early-down efficiency +0.05 Weak
49% / 47% allowed | 47% / 44% allowed
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