Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Indianapolis Colts face Tennessee Titans in Week 15 at Nissan Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Tennessee Titans enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 21.5 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Indianapolis Colts’s 24.0 points per game against a Tennessee Titans defense allowing 21.5. In the other direction, Tennessee Titans average 14.0 against Indianapolis Colts’s 27.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Tennessee Titans have injury designations to monitor: Kevin Winston Jr. (S) — Questionable; Tony Adams (S) — Questionable; Dorian Mausi (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tennessee Titans are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Explosive-play differential; Record quality.
The current model leans toward TEN at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Tennessee Titans 1-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
TENH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
TEN home field | TEN 63 days / IND 63 days
TENH Run-game matchup +0.55 Moderate
TEN 3.8 rush Y/A / 3.8 allowed | IND 4.0 / 4.8 | PBP 87% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
TENH OL vs DL matchup +0.48 Moderate
TEN OL sack 5.3% / DEF sack 7.8% | IND 6.4% / 5.0%
TENH Recent form +0.45 Moderate
TEN W1 · IND L2
INDA Explosive-play differential +0.36 Weak
4% / 5% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
INDA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
TEN 1-5 · IND 2-4
INDA Third-down efficiency +0.28 Moderate
TEN OFF 34.8% / DEF 40.0% | IND 37.3% / 30.4% | PBP 69%/44%/14% | 64%/45%/11%
INDA Schedule strength +0.17 Moderate
TEN 43% opp wins · IND 51%
INDA Early-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
39% / 42% allowed | 44% / 45% allowed
INDA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.15 Weak
47% / 55% allowed | 63% / 61% allowed
TENH Game-script tendencies +0.10 Weak
51% neutral pass / 51 plays | 55% / 63
TENH Pass defense +0.09 Weak
TEN 6.5 net Y/A / 69.1% CMP / 92.8 RATE | IND 6.9 / 61.4% / 98.2
TENH Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
TEN 1.3 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | IND 1.8 / 0.5
INDA Special teams efficiency +0.08 Weak
TEN FG 90.0% / NET PUNT 45.6 | IND 100.0% / 44.2
TENH Starting QB efficiency +0.07 Weak
Cam Ward (2026) 61.6% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 2.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 75.0 RATE · Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE
INDA Raw scoring differential +0.04 Weak
TEN 14.0 PPG · IND 24.0 PPG | TEN 21.5 PA/G · IND 27.3 PA/G
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