Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New York Jets face Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 at State Farm Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
Arizona Cardinals enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.0 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts New York Jets’s 18.7 points per game against a Arizona Cardinals defense allowing 29.7. In the other direction, Arizona Cardinals average 21.0 against New York Jets’s 20.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Doubtful; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Arizona Cardinals have injury designations to monitor: Andrew Wingard (S) — Questionable; Wydett Williams Jr. (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Arizona Cardinals are Home field / environment; OL vs DL matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Starting QB efficiency; Pass defense.
The current model leans toward NYJ at 55.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Arizona Cardinals 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NYJA Starting QB efficiency +1.1 Moderate
Jacoby Brissett (2026) 66.7% CMP / 5.7 Y/A / 3.8% TD / 2.6% INT / 83.4 RATE · Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE
ARIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
ARI home field | ARI 63 days / NYJ 63 days
NYJA Pass defense +0.76 Moderate
ARI 7.4 net Y/A / 65.7% CMP / 116.5 RATE | NYJ 5.3 / 61.5% / 93.1
NYJA Explosive-play differential +0.60 Moderate
3% / 6% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
ARIH OL vs DL matchup +0.39 Weak
ARI OL sack 4.9% / DEF sack 7.5% | NYJ 9.7% / 8.1%
ARIH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
ARI W1 · NYJ L1
NYJA Early-down efficiency +0.29 Weak
47% / 45% allowed | 48% / 44% allowed
NYJA Game-script tendencies +0.26 Weak
56% neutral pass / 66 plays | 54% / 55
NYJA Raw scoring differential +0.25 Moderate
ARI 21.0 PPG · NYJ 18.7 PPG | ARI 29.7 PA/G · NYJ 20.3 PA/G
NYJA Schedule strength +0.14 Weak
ARI 50% opp wins · NYJ 57%
NYJA Run-game matchup +0.11 Weak
ARI 3.7 rush Y/A / 4.4 allowed | NYJ 3.6 / 4.2 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
NYJA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.10 Weak
48% / 76% allowed | 31% / 50% allowed
NYJA Third-down efficiency +0.08 Weak
ARI OFF 39.3% / DEF 41.8% | NYJ 35.1% / 37.7% | PBP 69%/42%/23% | 60%/41%/25%
NYJA Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
ARI 1.0 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | NYJ 0.7 / 1.3
ARIH Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
ARI FG 87.5% / NET PUNT 40.5 | NYJ 92.3% / 42.3
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