Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars face Houston Texans in Week 15 at Reliant Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
Houston Texans enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 23.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Jacksonville Jaguars’s 25.7 points per game against a Houston Texans defense allowing 23.8. In the other direction, Houston Texans average 24.0 against Jacksonville Jaguars’s 17.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Houston Texans have injury designations to monitor: Reed Blankenship (S) — Questionable; David Montgomery (RB) — Questionable; Jalen Pitre (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Houston Texans are Home field / environment; Recent form.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Record quality; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward JAX at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Houston Texans 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
HOUH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
HOU home field | HOU 63 days / JAX 63 days
JAXA Record quality +0.67 Strong
HOU 2-4 · JAX 4-2
JAXA Run-game matchup +0.58 Moderate
HOU 3.6 rush Y/A / 3.4 allowed | JAX 4.1 / 3.2 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
JAXA Starting QB efficiency +0.51 Weak
C.J. Stroud (2026) 65.3% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 0.5% INT / 100.9 RATE · Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE
JAXA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.46 Strong
57% / 63% allowed | 67% / 40% allowed
HOUH Recent form +0.45 Moderate
HOU W2 · JAX L1
JAXA Third-down efficiency +0.43 Strong
HOU OFF 39.0% / DEF 40.8% | JAX 47.9% / 36.2% | PBP 65%/22%/31% | 80%/56%/30%
JAXA Raw scoring differential +0.28 Moderate
HOU 24.0 PPG · JAX 25.7 PPG | HOU 23.8 PA/G · JAX 17.3 PA/G
HOUH Pass defense +0.24 Weak
HOU 6.3 net Y/A / 65.6% CMP / 96.6 RATE | JAX 7.4 / 66.0% / 87.7
HOUH OL vs DL matchup +0.15 Weak
HOU OL sack 6.0% / DEF sack 7.6% | JAX 5.2% / 4.9%
HOUH Game-script tendencies +0.13 Weak
60% neutral pass / 60 plays | 55% / 58
JAXA Schedule strength +0.11 Weak
HOU 49% opp wins · JAX 54%
JAXA Early-down efficiency +0.10 Weak
46% / 44% allowed | 47% / 44% allowed
JAXA Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
HOU 0.5 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | JAX 0.7 / 1.5
HOUH Explosive-play differential +0.04 Weak
7% / 7% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
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